If Wisconsin is going to turn a solid start to Luke Fickell’s fourth season into something that doesn’t invite bigger questions, the Badgers have to do the hard thing Saturday: beat No. 16 USC at home.
That’s the job. The Trojans come in as narrow favorites, and they bring the kind of offense that can punish a mistake in a hurry. Lincoln Riley’s team is chasing its first College Football Playoff appearance under him, so Wisconsin will need a near-perfect night from start to finish to spring the upset.
The first place that starts is on third down. Last week against UCLA, Wisconsin bled far too many drives.
The Badgers allowed the Bruins to go 13-of-20 on third down, and those conversions came with an average distance to go of just 6.1 yards. Ty Dieffenbach was efficient in those spots too, throwing for 150 yards on 8-of-13 passing on third down alone.
That’s a dangerous way to live against USC. The Trojans convert 51% of their third-down tries, which ranks 14th nationally. Wisconsin’s run defense has to do its work on early downs and force USC into longer-yardage situations, where the Badgers can lean on their secondary and get pressure on the quarterback.
The other side of the ball needs a different kind of correction: feed the playmakers. Wisconsin’s two dynamic backs combined for only 13 touches at the Rose Bowl, and that simply isn’t enough. They are two of the best offensive weapons on the roster, and the ball has to find them.
Sama’s role was especially puzzling. If he’s still dealing with the injury that kept him out against Michigan State, that would explain some of it, but six carries at UCLA is still hard to square. He was one of Wisconsin’s most important transfer additions, and he still leads the team at 6.6 yards per carry.
Colton Joseph’s legs remain part of the answer, too. Wisconsin has leaned more heavily on his mobility lately, and the results have shown up in the box score: 212 rushing yards over the last two games after he totaled just 121 in the first four.
Still, the Badgers need more than quarterback run game to keep pace. Some of that load has to shift away from Joseph and onto the backfield pairing of Sama and Dupree.
The offensive line remains another major swing point. Starting center Austin Kawecki has been listed as probable all week despite his broken hand, so there’s at least a chance he returns to the starting five. Whether Wisconsin uses him at center or kicks him to guard is still unclear, but the Badgers badly need him back somewhere.
Last week’s reshuffle didn’t solve anything. Stylz Blackmon handled the move to center, but he wasn’t an upgrade over Ryan Cory against Michigan State and had his own issues at UCLA. PJ Wilkins, meanwhile, continues to struggle in pass protection, and Wisconsin has to acknowledge that he’s not playing like a starting-caliber offensive lineman right now.
If Kawecki can go at center, Blackmon should move back to guard. If not, Cory should be the center and Blackmon should slide back over. However Wisconsin arranges it, the Badgers have to stabilize a front that is creating too many problems.
Joseph did at least clean up one area last week. Even with the rough stat line against UCLA, he didn’t throw an interception for the second straight game. According to Pro Football Focus, he has just one turnover-worthy play over the last two weeks after piling up eight in the first four.
That matters because Wisconsin cannot afford giveaways against USC. The Trojans haven’t forced turnovers at the same alarming rate UCLA did, but the margin still matters here. If the Badgers want to hang with a high-scoring opponent, every possession has to count, and handing USC freebees or short fields would be fatal.
In Other News...
Wisconsin Gets A Huge Opening In Ranked USC Showdown
USCs trip to Camp Randall Stadium has turned into a spotlight game for both programs, with the No. 16 Trojans set for their fourth straight primetime appearance on NBC. Wisconsin gets a chance to measure itself against a ranked opponent at home, and the matchup has plenty of intrigue even before kickoff, with the Trojans currently installed as three-point favorites.
The opening may be bigger than expected if those two USC players on the injury report are limited or unavailable, giving the Badgers an early opportunity to press the issue. Wisconsin will lean on quarterback Colton Joseph to steer the offense in a game that kicks off Saturday at 4:30 p.m. PT, and the setting alone should give the Badgers a chance to make this one uncomfortable for a team that has spent the last month in the national spotlight. [Read more 🡒]
Wisconsin Just Added A New Backcourt Question Before The Season
Braeden Carringtons path to Wisconsin just got a little more complicated, and a lot more interesting. The senior guard has been granted a fifth year of eligibility after a California judge issued an injunction in the Glancey v. NCAA case, a ruling that arrived shortly before the season and temporarily opens the door for 76 seniors, including Carrington, to suit up this year while the NCAA moves toward an appeal.
For the Badgers, it adds another layer to an already crowded backcourt picture. Carrington averaged 8.3 points and 2.4 rebounds last season, and his return gives Wisconsin another experienced option in a rotation that figures to be sorted out over the coming weeks rather than settled now. [Read more 🡒]
Wisconsin Heads Into USC With Two Major Lineup Questions
Wisconsins week of preparation for No. 16 USC comes with a few familiar injury report wrinkles, and the biggest one remains at center. Austin Kawecki is listed as probable despite playing through a broken hand, which at least suggests the Badgers expect to have him available in the middle of the line. The same report also keeps cornerback Javan Robinson and wide receiver Malachi Coleman in the questionable column, giving the offense and defense alike a little uncertainty as game day approaches.
The backfield picture is less clear, with Nate Palmer listed as questionable and Darrion Dupree marked probable. For a Wisconsin team heading into a high-profile Big Ten matchup, those designations matter because they affect not just who starts, but how much flexibility the Badgers have if the game turns into a grind. Even with several players trending toward availability, the final status of a few key pieces will still shape how Wisconsin matches up when the Trojans arrive. [Read more 🡒]