Notre Dame arrives at Lambeau Field with the kind of statistical profile that makes an upset feel like a long shot. The Irish are listed as 20.5-point favorites and carry a 94.3% chance to win according to ESPN Analytics, which is why the conversation heading into Sunday night has centered less on whether Wisconsin can match talent and more on where, exactly, the Badgers might find an opening.
The biggest obstacle is obvious: Notre Dame’s offense has been productive everywhere. Last season, the Irish averaged 458.5 yards per game, good for No. 5 nationally, while also ranking No. 17 in rushing offense at 203.4 yards per game and No. 37 in passing offense at 255.1.
They also protected the ball well, averaging just 0.8 turnovers per game, which ranked No. 14.
That’s the kind of balance that makes a defense work overtime. Notre Dame’s attack wasn’t built on one trick or one star category; it just kept moving the chains and piling up yards. Offensive coordinator Mike Denbrock’s group looked like a machine.
The defense was strong too, even if the numbers leave a little more room for debate than the reputation might suggest. Notre Dame finished at No. 22 nationally in total defense, allowing 315.5 yards per game.
The Irish were especially tough against the run, giving up only 100.1 rushing yards per game, which ranked No. 11.
They also generated 1.9 turnovers per game, good for No. 11.
The passing defense is the area that stands out most. Notre Dame allowed 213.4 passing yards per game, which ranked No.
- That’s still a respectable number, but it’s not the untouchable stat line some might expect from a secondary with this much praise.
Last season, the Irish allowed only five fewer passing yards per game than Wisconsin, which ranked No. 62 in passing yards allowed. The takeaway is simple: Notre Dame’s secondary is excellent, but not invincible.
Up front, the pass rush has its own layers. Boubacar Traore gets the most attention as the headline edge threat, but the defensive end on the other side, Young, posted a better pressure rate last fall according to Pro Football Focus. Traore played more pass-rushing snaps, though his pressure rate was just 10%.
At linebacker, Ausberry and Drayk Bowen both return as starters. Ausberry, in particular, put up 51 total tackles last season, along with 4.0 tackles for loss and 2.0 sacks, but he was not the surest tackler on the roster. The group is experienced and talented, just not dominant across the board.
Then there’s quarterback CJ Carr, whose numbers paint a clear picture of how Notre Dame wants to function on offense. He logged 21 big time throws and 11 turnover-worthy plays. A big-time throw is considered an excellent-placed ball thrown downfield and/or into tight coverage, and Carr’s nearly 2:1 ratio puts him in the same range as quarterbacks such as USF’s Byrum Brown and Tennessee’s Joey Aguilar.
That’s the right lens for Carr: he’s productive and efficient, but not the type to light up a defense with one jaw-dropping throw after another. He runs the Irish offense cleanly and proficiently, and that’s been enough to keep Notre Dame right where it is now - heavily favored and carrying the statistical edge into Sunday night.
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Brock brings speed and a chance to add depth at receiver, Sievers gives the Badgers another young option at tight end, and Dunmore has shown enough promise on the defensive side to merit a look in game action. None of them is being asked to carry a major load right away, but Wisconsin clearly sees enough in their work ethic and intelligence to trust them in some capacity early, including in a season opener that should offer a quick read on how ready the freshmen really are. [Read more 🡒]
Marcus Freeman Just Sent Wisconsin Fans A Needed Reminder At Lambeau
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Freeman used his Week 1 press conference to offer a reminder that Wisconsin still has the kind of roster and identity that can make life difficult. He pointed to quarterback Colton Joseph and linebackers Mason Posa and Sebastian Cheeks as part of the challenge ahead, a nod that should sound pretty good in Madison even if it also comes with the usual pregame caution. With both programs now led by coaches who know each other well, Lambeau is shaping up as more than just another neutral-site meeting. [Read more 🡒]