Wisconsin’s trip to No. 13 Penn State has all the ingredients of a classic early-season gut check: a top-15 opponent, a brutal road environment and a Badgers team trying to make the first Big Ten game of the Luke Fickell era in this spot end differently than the last one.
Two years after Wisconsin went into halftime at USC with a 21-10 lead before falling apart, the Badgers head to Happy Valley looking to do what they didn’t finish in Los Angeles. The challenge is obvious. Penn State has looked sharp through three games, and the venue won’t make life any easier.
If Wisconsin is going to spring the upset, a few things have to break its way. Here are three bold predictions for Saturday evening.
First, the Badgers are going to force Penn State into mistakes.
The Nittany Lions have not turned the ball over through three games, and they’re one of 12 FBS teams that can say that. They’ve put the ball on the ground three times, but each one was recovered. That kind of clean sheet usually doesn’t last forever, especially against a defense that just found its takeaway groove.
Wisconsin didn’t force a turnover in its first two games, then suddenly came alive last week against Eastern Michigan. The Badgers intercepted Noah Kim twice and added a strip-sack, a welcome burst after a quiet start.
Penn State quarterback Rocco Becht has done a great job protecting the football, and Pro Football Focus has credited him with zero "turnover-worthy plays" so far. He did fumble against Buffalo, though, and the larger point still stands: he has kept Penn State out of trouble.
Even so, the Badgers should have chances. Penn State has allowed a sack in every game, and Wisconsin’s pass rush has been active even if the sack totals haven’t piled up.
Outside backer Sebastian Cheeks has been especially disruptive, tying for fourth nationally with 14 pressures already this season. That kind of heat can create a bad throw or a loose ball in a hurry.
If Wisconsin is going to pull this off, turnovers probably aren’t optional.
The second prediction: Wisconsin runs the ball well enough to keep this thing on schedule.
That matters for all the obvious reasons. On the road, against a team like Penn State, you want control.
You want to win at the line of scrimmage. You want to keep the game from becoming a track meet.
It also matters because Wisconsin can’t ask Colton Joseph to carry everything. He was excellent last week, finishing with 408 total yards and four touchdowns, but he also threw an ugly interception and still has a tendency to make one or two rough decisions every game.
Penn State’s pass defense has been outstanding, and it’s the only defense in the country giving up fewer than 100 passing yards per game. But the run defense has been more human.
The Nittany Lions are allowing 111 rushing yards per game, which ranks No. 35 nationally, and Temple managed 176 on the ground against them. Temple quarterback Jackson Smolik ran for 71 of those yards himself.
That opens a lane for Joseph and, if the expected return of Abu Sama comes through, for the rest of Wisconsin’s ground game as well. The Badgers ran for 233 yards against Western Illinois, though 104 of that came on just two plays.
This one doesn’t need a giant number to count as a win. It just needs to look more steady, more functional, more capable of helping Wisconsin survive a tough road night.
The final prediction: Gavin Lahm hits another long field goal.
Lahm has been one of the season’s most surprising bright spots for Wisconsin. Before this year, he hadn’t attempted a collegiate extra point or field goal. Now he’s 7-for-7 on field goals, with the lone missed extra point blamed by Fickell on the snap and/or hold.
He already has a 51-yarder on his ledger, and he drilled it against Western Illinois with plenty of room to spare. The leg is real, but so is the touch. He looks capable from the 50- to 55-yard range, and this feels like the kind of game where Wisconsin’s offense moves the ball just enough before stalling out in fringe field-goal territory.
That’s where Lahm comes in. If the Badgers are going to hang around, he may have to stretch his range again.
In Other News...
Wisconsins Penn State Chances Suddenly Come Down To One Big Concern
The first Big Ten availability report for Wisconsins matchup with Penn State offered an immediate look at how much depth both teams may have to lean on when they meet. The Badgers listed four players as out, five as questionable and four as probable, while Penn States report also came with notable absences and a cluster of uncertain names as the week moves on.
For Wisconsin, the bigger issue is not just who is already ruled out, but how many key decisions are still hanging over the game. Penn States side adds to the intrigue with star receiver Koby Howard among the players unavailable, and six more Nittany Lions listed as questionable. In a game where both staffs are already sorting through injuries, the final availability report could end up shaping the matchup as much as anything on the field. [Read more 🡒]
Wisconsin's Secondary Suddenly Has A Depth Problem Fans Didn't Want
Wisconsins secondary took another hit in Week 2 when cornerback Cai Bates went down with a torn ACL, ending his season before it really got started. The Florida State transfer had settled in as the No. 2 boundary cornerback, giving the Badgers a useful blend of experience and depth in a spot where every snap matters. Bates confirmed the injury on Instagram, and for a defense that has leaned on its back end to steady things, losing a player in that role is a tough break.
Donovan Dunmore now appears to be the next man up, with the true freshman expected to fill the opening on the boundary. For Wisconsin, the move is about more than simply plugging a lineup hole because the Badgers had been counting on Bates to provide reliable snaps in a secondary that could not afford to get thin. How quickly Dunmore can handle that jump is now one of the more important subplots on the defensive side. [Read more 🡒]
Wisconsin Heads To Penn State With A Secondary Problem It Can't Ignore
As Wisconsin turns to Week 4 at Penn State, the conversation is already drifting toward availability as much as matchup. The Badgers are trying to navigate a secondary that took another blow with Florida State transfer cornerback Bates suffering a torn ACL and being expected to miss the season, a development that only sharpens the pressure on a defense that has to hold up on the road in a difficult environment.
The injury picture is still far from settled around Madison, with Mason Posa, Eugene Hilton Jr., Malachi Coleman, Abu Sama and Bryan Jackson all carrying different statuses heading into the trip. Penn State, meanwhile, has its own questions to sort through with starting center Brock Riker and tight end Andrew Rappleyea listed as questionable, while the Nittany Lions also will be without wide receiver Koby Howard for an extended stretch after his injury announcement. [Read more 🡒]