Winning in Happy Valley is never simple, and Wisconsin’s path Saturday runs through a few places where the game can tilt fast. If the Badgers are going to pull off the upset, the line play, the ground game, and the punt battle all have to break their way.
That starts up front, where Eric Mateos’ group has already been a talking point because of injuries in camp. Against Penn State, that unit will be under a different kind of pressure.
Through three games, the Nittany Lions have only four sacks, and Colton Joseph has been taken down just twice, both against Notre Dame. Even those two plays are debatable as sacks, since they came when he tried to escape and was stuffed on the run.
Penn State’s defensive front should look a lot more like Notre Dame’s than the units Wisconsin faced against Western Illinois or Eastern Michigan. That matters because the Badgers’ best chance to move the ball is through the air, and that only happens if Joseph has time to throw. A clean pocket is the prize, and Penn State’s front seven is built to make that hard to find.
The Badgers also can’t ignore the run game, even if the pass is the more direct route to staying alive in this one. Penn State has been solid against the run in spots, giving up just 1.7 yards per carry against Marshall and 3.0 against Buffalo.
But Temple found some room, rushing for 176 yards at 5.3 per carry. Wisconsin didn’t exactly overpower Eastern Michigan on the ground, either, so establishing even steady rushing production would help cut down on mistakes from Joseph and force Penn State to respect more than one thing.
The health of Emerson Mandell is still part of the equation. He made his debut last week, though only briefly, and whether he’s ready to give Wisconsin meaningful snaps or not, the offensive line has to hold up for the upset bid to have a chance.
On the other side, the matchup with Hansen is one Wisconsin has to get right. Posa and Catalano should be right in the middle of that plan for Hansen, who came over from Iowa State with Campbell and has been productive even if the raw numbers don’t jump off the page. He’s carried the ball 35 times for 169 yards in three games, good for 4.8 yards a pop, and he finally got into the end zone in Week 3.
Penn State’s offense also has a notable absence to deal with. Wide receiver Koby Howard will miss an extended period, including Saturday’s game, which means the Nittany Lions will need other players to generate chunk plays.
Campbell trusts Rocco Becht, and Becht has plenty of options, but this is the kind of game where Hansen could see a bigger role than he has so far. If that happens, Charles Perkins and Hammond Russell become even more important in keeping him from getting to the second level with momentum.
Posa and Catalano are the difference-makers Wisconsin will lean on, and keeping Hansen to modest gains instead of letting him get loose in space could be huge.
Then there’s the hidden-yardage fight, which may end up mattering just as much as anything else. Robinson has been more than serviceable as a return man for Penn State, averaging about 13 yards on 13 punt returns with a long of 38 yards. He hasn’t taken one to the house, but he’s a real threat to flip the field.
That puts even more pressure on Sean West, because Wisconsin probably won’t have many easy scoring chances. The offense hasn’t done enough to be labeled elite after one strong outing against Eastern Michigan, so field position becomes a major part of the upset formula. West followed a disastrous finish against Minnesota to close 2025 with a dramatic response against Notre Dame, including what was described as the best punt ever seen.
He doesn’t need to pin every kick inside the 5, but he does need to force Penn State into long fields, especially without its most explosive player. Robinson doesn’t have to be avoided at all costs, but West has to give the coverage team time to get downfield with long punts and good hang time. If Wisconsin can keep Penn State starting far from the end zone and make it string together long drives, that would go a long way toward making the night interesting.
In Other News...
Wisconsins Penn State Chances Suddenly Come Down To One Big Concern
The first Big Ten availability report for Wisconsins matchup with Penn State offered an immediate look at how much depth both teams may have to lean on when they meet. The Badgers listed four players as out, five as questionable and four as probable, while Penn States report also came with notable absences and a cluster of uncertain names as the week moves on.
For Wisconsin, the bigger issue is not just who is already ruled out, but how many key decisions are still hanging over the game. Penn States side adds to the intrigue with star receiver Koby Howard among the players unavailable, and six more Nittany Lions listed as questionable. In a game where both staffs are already sorting through injuries, the final availability report could end up shaping the matchup as much as anything on the field. [Read more 🡒]
Wisconsin's Secondary Suddenly Has A Depth Problem Fans Didn't Want
Wisconsins secondary took another hit in Week 2 when cornerback Cai Bates went down with a torn ACL, ending his season before it really got started. The Florida State transfer had settled in as the No. 2 boundary cornerback, giving the Badgers a useful blend of experience and depth in a spot where every snap matters. Bates confirmed the injury on Instagram, and for a defense that has leaned on its back end to steady things, losing a player in that role is a tough break.
Donovan Dunmore now appears to be the next man up, with the true freshman expected to fill the opening on the boundary. For Wisconsin, the move is about more than simply plugging a lineup hole because the Badgers had been counting on Bates to provide reliable snaps in a secondary that could not afford to get thin. How quickly Dunmore can handle that jump is now one of the more important subplots on the defensive side. [Read more 🡒]
Wisconsin Heads To Penn State With A Secondary Problem It Can't Ignore
As Wisconsin turns to Week 4 at Penn State, the conversation is already drifting toward availability as much as matchup. The Badgers are trying to navigate a secondary that took another blow with Florida State transfer cornerback Bates suffering a torn ACL and being expected to miss the season, a development that only sharpens the pressure on a defense that has to hold up on the road in a difficult environment.
The injury picture is still far from settled around Madison, with Mason Posa, Eugene Hilton Jr., Malachi Coleman, Abu Sama and Bryan Jackson all carrying different statuses heading into the trip. Penn State, meanwhile, has its own questions to sort through with starting center Brock Riker and tight end Andrew Rappleyea listed as questionable, while the Nittany Lions also will be without wide receiver Koby Howard for an extended stretch after his injury announcement. [Read more 🡒]