The Wisconsin Badgers are heading west for a matchup that suddenly looks even more interesting after No. 12 UCLA lost its star quarterback to a season-ending injury.
That change alone has shifted the conversation around Saturday, Oct. 17. UCLA is coming off a massive win at Oregon, a result that sent the Bruins surging in both the AP and US LBM Coaches Polls, but the injury to Nico Iamaleava adds a new wrinkle for a team that has built its identity around defense and the run game.
Badgers Wire’s Jordon Lawrenz recently spoke with Dylan McNeill, the lead writer of UCLA Wire, to get a read on what Wisconsin should expect at the Rose Bowl.
McNeill said the Bruins’ offense will look different without Iamaleava, though not necessarily broken. Bob Chesney said after the game that neither Madden Iamaleava nor Ty Dieffenbach has won the QB2 job, which means either one - or possibly both - could play this weekend. Chesney seems to trust Dieffenbach’s arm more after using him in relief against Oregon, but if UCLA wants to stay closer to what it has already been doing, the younger Iamaleava could also see time.
Either way, McNeill pointed to the same reality: UCLA leans heavily on its rushing attack. Nico Iamaleava had dealt with turnovers this season, so UCLA may not see the offense fall off as sharply as some might assume if the backup plan comes with fewer chances for mistakes.
That ground game is the part Wisconsin has to worry about most. UCLA is averaging 253.2 rushing yards per game, which ranks sixth nationally, and Wayne Knight is the headliner.
He hasn’t been held below 71 rushing yards in any game this season and was just three yards short of a fourth straight 100-yard outing. But McNeill emphasized that Knight is only part of the picture.
Anthony Woods and Jaivian Thomas can hurt defenses too, and the Bruins’ offensive line gives them depth and flexibility up front.
Wisconsin has allowed 114.6 rushing yards per game, a solid number, but this is a different kind of challenge. UCLA’s offensive coordinator has created a package of plays that gives defenses problems, and the Bruins believe they can run the ball against just about anybody.
On the other side of the ball, UCLA’s defense arrives with a stronger reputation than the numbers in every game might suggest. The Bruins held Oregon to 15 points and knocked the Ducks out of the AP Top 25, but they also gave up 38 points to Purdue earlier this season. McNeill described UCLA as a team that lives by its defense and rushing attack, and said the turnover battle remains central to how good the Bruins can be.
UCLA’s turnover differential is +12, which ranks third in the nation behind New Mexico and Notre Dame. When the defense isn’t forcing takeaways, though, there are openings.
That showed up in the Purdue and Cal games. McNeill said if Wisconsin protects the football, the Badgers should be able to find some success.
The setting should also give UCLA a boost. This will be the first meeting between the teams since 2000, and McNeill expects a lively Rose Bowl crowd on Saturday night. It will be UCLA’s first home game as a ranked team in years, and with students back on campus - UCLA’s Fall Quarter began on September 24th - there should be more energy in the building than usual for a nationally televised game.
UCLA has not exactly had a consistent home-field edge in recent seasons, but Bob Chesney has changed the feel around the program enough that this one could sound different.
As for the finish, McNeill sees Wisconsin staying in it. He believes the Badgers will head to the Rose Bowl expecting to steal a road win, and while the quarterback injury helps their case, he does not think it automatically wrecks UCLA’s season. Iamaleava’s turnovers have already kept some Bruins games close, and McNeill suggested that a simpler passing plan with less risk could make up for some of the lost talent at quarterback.
His final call: UCLA 26, Wisconsin 24.
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