Wisconsin’s path to the College Football Playoff is still alive, but it’s a steep climb.
ESPN’s FPI metric gives the 5-2 Badgers a 9.8% chance of making the field, a number that reflects just how narrow the margin is now that the playoff is a 12-team setup. With two losses already on the board, Wisconsin can’t afford another stumble if it wants to stay in the conversation.
The math is simple from here: the Badgers need to run the table. Remaining on the schedule are Iowa, Rutgers, Maryland, Purdue, and Minnesota, and there isn’t much room for debate about which games look most manageable. Wisconsin should be favored against Rutgers, Maryland, and Purdue, while Iowa and Minnesota are the tougher tests still waiting.
That said, the Hawkeyes and Gophers are the real swing points. Iowa looks like a coin flip, and Minnesota has been a much tougher team for Wisconsin to solve. If the Badgers are going to make this thing interesting, those are the games that likely decide whether the dream stays alive.
Even if the playoff door stays shut, Wisconsin still has a chance to finish strong. The most realistic outcome, according to the outlook in front of them, is three or four more wins the rest of the way, which would still count as a solid season after a rocky stretch under Luke Fickell.
And if that momentum carries into the offseason, with another strong transfer class and a good haul of high school prospects, Fickell could head into the next year with a much safer seat.
In Other News...
Wisconsin Just Suffered The Kind Of Loss That Changes Everything
A 30-0 loss to Iowa on Oct. 31 did more than hand Wisconsin a bruising defeat, it knocked the Badgers out of the AP Top 25 and left the program searching for answers on both sides of the ball. The game never found much rhythm for Wisconsin, which was undone by poor time of possession, turnovers and penalties while Iowa controlled the flow with sustained drives that kept the Badgers on the back foot.
Colton Josephs rough night ended with a benching, adding another layer to a loss that already felt like a turning point. Wisconsins defense could not get off the field, the offense never settled in, and the kind of one-sided result that lingers well beyond one Saturday now leaves the Badgers facing a much different conversation about where the season goes from here. [Read more 🡒]
Luke Fickell Just Made Wisconsins Iowa Problem Feel Even Worse
The latest loss to Iowa only deepened the sense that Wisconsins problems in this rivalry are becoming more than a one-game issue. The Badgers were shut out again, and under Luke Fickell, the gap has only looked wider when these teams meet. Fickell called it a decisive defeat and did not have an immediate explanation for why his team keeps running into the same wall against the Hawkeyes.
For Wisconsin, the concern is no longer just the scoreboard on one Saturday. The offense has struggled badly in these matchups, and each flat performance adds more pressure around a program that expected a quicker climb under Fickell. When the same opponent keeps exposing the same flaws, questions about the direction of the team and the coachs standing only get louder. [Read more 🡒]
Wisconsin's QB Situation Just Became Luke Fickell's Biggest Problem
The first half against Iowa only sharpened the concern around Wisconsins offense, which went into the break trailing 20-0 after a flat opening 30 minutes. Colton Josephs line told the story of a unit that never found rhythm, as most of his passing production came on one deep throw while the ground game offered little support and the play-calling stayed cautious.
For Luke Fickell, the bigger issue now is whether the Badgers can keep riding with the current setup or need to make a change under center. True freshman Ryan Hopkins is the name that naturally enters the conversation when an offense looks this stuck, and the longer Wisconsin goes without answers, the harder it becomes to avoid a quarterback decision. [Read more 🡒]