Vegas looks like it bought in on Luke Fickell after Wisconsin’s wild win at Penn State.
The Badgers turned what had been framed as a season-defining test into a 24-20 upset of No. 13 Penn State in Happy Valley, rallying from a 17-0 hole to pull off Wisconsin’s first win at Beaver Stadium since 2003. It was a messy start, with a quarterback who was completing more passes to the Nittany Lions than to the Badgers, but Wisconsin settled in, found some rhythm on offense, and finished the job.
That result has changed the market for Saturday’s game against Michigan State at Camp Randall. Wisconsin opened as nearly a 10-point underdog against Penn State, but now the Badgers are being treated as more than 10-point favorites over the Spartans.
Moneyline
Michigan State +310
Wisconsin -400
Spread
Michigan State +10.5 (-115)
Wisconsin -10.5 (-105)
Total
44.5 (over -110/under -110)
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
Wisconsin likely would have been favored at home anyway, even without the Penn State shocker. Both teams were seen as bottom-tier Big Ten clubs, and home-field advantage alone probably would have pushed the Badgers into the favorite role. But the number probably would have landed closer to a field goal or four points, not double digits.
The books also have some straightforward recent form to work with. Wisconsin has won three straight, while Michigan State has dropped back-to-back games. The two teams also share a pair of common opponents in Notre Dame and Eastern Michigan.
Wisconsin fell to Notre Dame 41-13, while Michigan State lost 27-10. Against Eastern Michigan, the Badgers rolled 54-10 and the Spartans won 35-7. The Notre Dame result may not carry much weight in the handicapping, but the Eastern Michigan comparison gives a cleaner side-by-side look.
Then there’s the most recent data point: Michigan State was beaten by Nebraska 31-13 on Saturday, while Wisconsin was busy pulling off its stunner against Penn State, 24-20. Put that together, and it’s easy to see why Vegas is projecting a comfortable Wisconsin win.
The challenge for the Badgers now is simple: don’t let the Penn State high turn into a flat spot. Luke Fickell needs Wisconsin to come out sharp, start fast, and keep the pressure on. If the Badgers are truly back, this is the kind of game that should show it.
In Other News...
Wisconsin Just Sent The AP Poll Debate Into Overdrive
Wisconsins upset of No. 13 Penn State did exactly what a statement win is supposed to do, but it still did not quite push the Badgers into the AP Top 25. They remain unranked in the latest poll, yet they landed 102 points and now sit at the top of the received votes list, which is about as close as a team can get without actually cracking the rankings.
The path back in is clear enough, even if it is not guaranteed. If Wisconsin takes care of Michigan State next and gets a little help elsewhere, next week could finally be the one where the Badgers break through. For now, the poll debate they sparked after beating Penn State is still very much alive. [Read more 🡒]
Wisconsin Faces A New Kind Of Pressure After Its Penn State Stunner
Wisconsins comeback at Penn State gave Luke Fickell the kind of road win that can change the feel of a season. Down 17-0 and staring at a tough afternoon in a hostile building, the Badgers rallied to knock off the No. 13 team in the country, a result that stands as one of the clearest markers yet of progress in this era. Even so, the reward has been more about momentum than recognition, with Wisconsin still sitting outside the AP Top 25 as it turns its attention to the next Big Ten test.
Michigan State comes to Madison for the conference home opener carrying its own concerns, including an injury to key player Cam Edwards and a recent stretch of uneven play. For Wisconsin, the new pressure is obvious: after a statement win, there is less room to treat anything as a stepping stone. The Badgers now have to show that the Penn State rally was not just an emotional peak, but the start of something sturdier as the schedule keeps tightening. [Read more 🡒]
Michigan State Enters Wisconsin Matchup With A Backfield Problem
Michigan State heads into its matchup with Wisconsin facing a significant shakeup in the backfield after Cam Edwards went down with a knee injury against Nebraska. Coach Pat Fitzgerald confirmed Edwards will miss the rest of the season, leaving the Spartans without a runner who had already piled up 304 rushing yards and three touchdowns in the early going.
Jaziun Patterson stepped in during the Nebraska game and is expected to carry the load moving forward, which adds another layer of uncertainty for a Wisconsin defense preparing for a different look. The Badgers will still have to sort through a Michigan State offense that now has to adjust on the fly, and the way that backfield settles in could shape the tone of the matchup. [Read more 🡒]