Wisconsin’s best shot at an upset in 2026 might not come in the game that looks the loudest on paper.
The Badgers open with Notre Dame on Sept. 6, and DraftKings has Wisconsin as a 20.5-point underdog. That number says plenty about where the program stands right now, but it also frames the bigger question: which of Wisconsin’s likely underdog spots offers the most realistic path to a surprise?
There are three games that stand out as double-digit mismatch candidates - Notre Dame at Lambeau, Penn State in Happy Valley and USC in Madison - and each brings its own kind of trouble. But the Fighting Irish still look like the toughest assignment on the schedule.
Notre Dame has the kind of roster that explains the preseason top-five buzz. CJ Carr gives the Irish an elite quarterback, Mike Denbrock is running the offense, and the defensive backfield is one of the best in the country.
Marcus Freeman has assembled a team that should be even more motivated after missing the College Football Playoff last season. Top to bottom, that’s the hardest opponent Wisconsin is expected to face all year.
The one thing the Badgers do have in their favor is the setting. Playing at Lambeau gives Wisconsin its best chance to tilt the environment, even with a healthy chunk of the tickets expected to go to Notre Dame fans. Still, the Irish are the most complete team on the slate.
Penn State is a different kind of problem. Wisconsin opens Big Ten play there on Sept. 26, and the Nittany Lions are now led by new head coach Matt Campbell, who brought a big chunk of his Iowa State offense with him.
The starting quarterback, starting running back, projected top two wide receivers, starting tight end and starting right guard are all Iowa State transfers. That makes the Penn State offense a lot more familiar than intimidating, at least on paper.
Beaver Stadium will be the loudest road environment Wisconsin sees this fall, and that matters. But compared with Notre Dame and USC, Penn State may actually be the least frightening team of the three.
USC brings the flash. Jayden Maiava is coming off a season with 3,800-plus yards and 30 touchdowns, and the Trojans also have an elite backfield pairing in Waymond Jordan and King Miller. The offensive line is experienced, and Gary Patterson is there to help fix the defense.
Even so, there’s still plenty of skepticism baked into all the USC hype. The Trojans have talent, as they usually do, but the defense under Lincoln Riley has to prove it can hold up. For all the buzz around the roster, Riley still hasn’t shown he can get this group to a truly elite level.
That leaves Penn State as Wisconsin’s most likely upset target. The Nittany Lions will be tough because of the venue, but the roster doesn’t carry the same punch as Notre Dame’s or USC’s. Rocco Becht doesn’t inspire the same kind of concern as Carr or Maiava, and the supporting cast is less imposing too.
Wisconsin should also walk into that game with some momentum. The Badgers are expected to handle Eastern Michigan and FCS Western Illinois before heading to Happy Valley, while Penn State will have played three straight buy games to start the season. That means Wisconsin should arrive battle-tested after Notre Dame, while Penn State will be facing its first real test.
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