Wisconsin’s season has reached the point where every remaining week starts to feel like a fork in the road, and ESPN Analytics is projecting a finish that would have Badgers fans buzzing.
After the upset of No. 16 USC, Wisconsin still has five games left, and the big question remains the same one that opened the year: what kind of team is this?
Six wins? Seven or eight?
Maybe even nine or ten?
ESPN Analytics had already pegged Wisconsin for eight wins before the season began, with losses to Notre Dame, Penn State, USC, and Iowa. At the time, that outlook would have sounded plenty appealing to plenty of Badger fans. But the numbers have shifted as the year has unfolded, and they keep moving with each result.
Wisconsin has already beaten Penn State and USC, but it also dropped a game to UCLA, which was supposed to be a win in the preseason model. That matters because the projections are changing week by week, and these figures are current as of October 27, 2026.
Here’s how ESPN sees the rest of the slate shaping up:
Week 9: Wisconsin vs. Iowa - 57.3% Iowa win
The model gives Iowa a slight edge here, and that makes sense on the road. The Hawkeyes have had Wisconsin’s number often enough in recent years, but this one is close enough to suggest the Badgers are very much in the fight.
Week 10: Wisconsin vs. Rutgers - 90% Wisconsin win
ESPN is not leaving much room for doubt in this one. The Scarlet Knights are being heavily faded, with the model calling for a Wisconsin win by a wide margin.
Week 11: Wisconsin vs. Maryland - 81.5% Wisconsin win
The Badgers are also favored against Maryland, though not quite as strongly as they are against Rutgers. That difference comes down to location: Wisconsin is at home against Rutgers and on the road against Maryland, and the model is clearly accounting for that.
Week 12: Wisconsin vs. Purdue - 68.8% Wisconsin win
Purdue has been different this year, and this one comes on the road, but ESPN still leans toward Wisconsin by a solid margin.
Week 13: Wisconsin vs. Minnesota - 81.6% Wisconsin win
This one might raise an eyebrow, but the model likes Wisconsin more here than it does against Purdue or Maryland.
Put it all together, and ESPN’s current percentages point to a 4-1 finish and a 9-3 record. That would be one win better than the preseason forecast. And if Wisconsin gets past Iowa, the model would flip to a perfect run the rest of the way and a 10-win season.
None of this is guaranteed, of course. But there’s real energy around Madison right now, and Luke Fickell has kept hammering the same message: the Badgers haven’t earned anything yet. They still have plenty left to prove.
Five wins is nice. Nine or ten is a lot nicer.
In Other News...
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Wisconsins recent television numbers have given a clearer picture of what the program can still draw on a national stage. The prime-time matchup with UCLA pulled 2.2 million viewers, and the game against USC still brought in 1.9 million even with the World Series in the mix, a reminder that the Badgers remain a brand people will stop to watch when the schedule puts them in a spotlight.
Camp Randall has backed that up in person, too, with more than 70,000 in the stands for the USC game. Because some of Wisconsins earlier games were carried on networks not tracked by Nielsen, these newer ratings offer a better read on the true size of the audience, and they suggest the Badgers appeal is still very much national even in a season of changing optics. [Read more 🡒]
Jonathan Taylor Trade Buzz Is Suddenly Worth Watching For Badgers Fans
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USA TODAY recently pointed to six teams that could get involved if the Colts decide to move him, including the Vikings, Packers, Seahawks, Broncos, Giants and Commanders. Whether anything actually materializes is another matter, but the mere fact that Taylor is being discussed in a potential fire sale gives the deadline a little extra weight for a player Badgers fans know well. [Read more 🡒]
Wisconsins Frontcourt Is Already Facing A Tough Early Test
Wisconsins frontcourt is dealing with an early hiccup before the games start to count, with sophomore forward Will Garlock sidelined after a practice injury and listed as day-to-day. He missed the exhibition win over Oklahoma State, and with the season opener against Denver looming on Nov. 2, the Badgers are already having to sort out how much they can ask from a group still taking shape.
If Garlock is unavailable, the workload in the post could shift quickly to Hofstra transfer Victory Onuetu and freshman Isaac Riddle, both of whom are in line to factor into the rotation. For a team still trying to settle roles this early in the year, Garlocks status is worth watching because it could determine how much Wisconsin leans on its depth right away. [Read more 🡒]