Wisconsin is heading into Week 2 with a line that says everything about how the market sees this matchup. After Notre Dame pulled away and covered the 20.5-point number on Saturday, the Badgers now turn to Western Illinois, and the early odds are massive.
Wisconsin is listed as a 36.5-point favorite, with the spread set at -114 for the Badgers and +36.5 at -106 for Western Illinois. The moneyline isn’t posted for Wisconsin, while Western Illinois sits at +8000.
The total is 49.5, with both the over and under priced at -110. Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
Put the spread and total together, and the rough projection lands around a 46-7 Wisconsin win, depending on how the over/under plays out. That kind of number would give the Badgers exactly the sort of afternoon they need after things unraveled against Notre Dame from the third quarter on. A clean, controlled game would allow Wisconsin to get backups on the field and give them some real snaps.
ESPN Analytics is on the same page, giving Wisconsin a 99% chance to win. That is as high as the predictor goes, which tells you plenty about how little faith there is in Western Illinois to make this competitive.
This will also be Wisconsin’s first home game of the season, and the first chance for fans at Camp Randall to see the new group in person. There’s some frustration after the second-half showing against Notre Dame, but nobody reasonable expected the Badgers to roll in and beat that team on opening weekend. You don't go from a four-win team to a National Championship team overnight, even with the transfer portal.
The bigger picture for Wisconsin hasn’t changed. The goals are still there, and the season still has plenty of room to develop. This game is supposed to be a blowout, but it can still tell the Badgers a lot.
After Western Illinois, Wisconsin gets Eastern Michigan at Camp Randall, another game where there will be chances to clean things up. Then comes Penn State, a matchup that is projected as a loss but still one Wisconsin could win. Notre Dame may be the toughest opponent the Badgers see all year, so the task now is simple: take the lesson, keep moving, and chase the rest of the season.
In Other News...
Wisconsin Fans Have A New Reason To Revisit The Dilin Jones Exit
Dilin Jones did not need much time to make his new school look like a good fit. The redshirt sophomore running back left Wisconsin for LSU and quickly moved into the Tigers starting job, giving his new fan base an immediate look at the kind of runner the Badgers once hoped to build around.
His first game there offered a reminder of what Wisconsin lost and why the separation made sense for both sides. Jones handled 23 carries for 113 yards and two touchdowns, showing the physical style that made him intriguing in the first place, while Wisconsin continued to wrestle with the offensive line issues that helped push him toward a fresh start. [Read more 🡒]
Wisconsin Already Has One Troubling Week 1 Reality Up Front
A lot of the early discussion coming out of Wisconsins loss to Notre Dame centered on the obvious bright spots, and there were a few. Coleman gave the Badgers a useful debut with four catches and a touchdown, Cheeks flashed on defense with a sack and a forced fumble, and West helped flip the field with a booming 70-yard punt. For a season opener, those are the kind of individual moments a staff can point to while trying to sort out the bigger picture.
The concern comes up front, where Wilkins had a rough afternoon against Notre Dames defense. His issues in both pass protection and run blocking stood out in a game where Wisconsin needed steadiness more than anything else, and that makes the conversation around the offensive line feel a little more urgent already. One game is only one game, but for a team trying to establish itself, the first real test exposed a spot the Badgers cannot afford to let linger. [Read more 🡒]
Even Wisconsin's Next Opponent Sees A Different Badgers Team
Western Illinois is heading into its matchup with Wisconsin with a clear-eyed view of what it is walking into, but also with a little more respect for what the Badgers look like now. Coach Joe Davis said Wisconsin has rebuilt its roster well, leaning on transfer help to reshape the team after the loss to Notre Dame, and he singled out quarterback Colton Joseph as part of the reason the Badgers look different from the version opponents may have seen before.
For the Leathernecks, the talent gap is obvious, and nobody in the program is pretending otherwise. Even so, Western Illinois views the game as meaningful and plans to approach it with real intent, treating an FCS trip to face an FBS opponent as more than a paycheck week. How much that renewed Wisconsin look translates on the field is still the question, and it is one the Badgers will want answered quickly. [Read more 🡒]