Wisconsin’s 2025 football season is in the books, and it’s not hard to see why Badgers fans would rather fast-forward to this fall. Most projection models and oddsmakers expected a rough ride last year, pegging Wisconsin for five wins or fewer.
They were right. The Badgers stumbled to a 4-8 finish.
This season, though, the numbers point to something a little more encouraging.
Wisconsin still opens with a heavyweight test against Notre Dame at Lambeau Field, but the rest of the slate looks more manageable than last year’s grind. Most projections set the Badgers’ win total at 6½, and ESPN’s model gives Wisconsin a better-than-even shot to reach eight victories.
That path gets a lot easier because the Badgers do not face defending national champion Indiana, Ohio State, Oregon or Michigan in the 18-team Big Ten. ESPN’s forecast says Wisconsin has a real chance to stack wins late, especially in its final four games against Rutgers, Maryland, Purdue and Minnesota.
If that projection holds, Wisconsin would finish 8-4 overall and 6-3 in conference play. That kind of turnaround would also go a long way toward easing the pressure on coach Luke Fickell.
ESPN’s game-by-game win probabilities for Wisconsin break down like this:
Sept. 6: vs. Notre Dame at Lambeau Field: 7%
Sept. 12: vs. Western Illinois: 99%
Sept. 19: vs. Eastern Michigan: 94.7%
Sept. 26: at Penn State: 19.7%
Oct. 3: vs. Michigan State: 69%
Oct. 17: at UCLA: 55.8%
Oct. 24: vs. USC: 23.2%
Oct. 31: at Iowa: 27.8%
Nov. 7: vs. Rutgers: 72%
Nov. 14: at Maryland: 53.8%
Nov. 21: at Purdue: 61.3%
Nov. 27: vs. Minnesota: 68.4%
CBS Sports is in the same neighborhood. Its projection has Wisconsin going 7-5 overall and finishing above .500 in Big Ten play, though it slots the Badgers tied for 10th in the conference. Even so, seven wins would be enough to get Wisconsin to a bowl game.
CBS Sports wrote:
"Luke Fickell's 2026 season comes with pressure, but a 7-5 finish would be enough to stabilize his job security, given the program's trajectory. The Badgers have endured roster turnover and uneven offensive production, yet still have the physical identity to grind out wins in the Big Ten. Improvement along the line of scrimmage with portal reinforcements should be enough to push Wisconsin back into bowl eligibility."
The betting markets aren’t exactly screaming contender, either. BetMGM lists Wisconsin at plus-15000 to win the Big Ten and plus-2500 to make the College Football Playoff.
For the truly optimistic, FanDuel has the Badgers at plus-60000 to win the national championship.
In Other News...
Wisconsin Suddenly Has An Offensive Concern Fans Cant Ignore
A recent practice in Madison offered a glimpse of where Wisconsin may be ahead of schedule and where it still has work to do. The defense looked sharper than the offense, with the front seven setting the tone and giving the staff plenty to like if the group can stay healthy. On the other side, the offense had trouble finding consistent running lanes and keeping the pocket clean, which is not the kind of rhythm any coordinator wants to see as games draw closer.
The line situation only added to the uneasiness, with two starting offensive linemen not fully available and depth being tested in ways the Badgers would rather avoid this early. There is still time for the offense to settle in, and the receivers and tight ends are part of that equation, but the contrast from this practice was hard to miss. If Wisconsin wants the attack to come together quickly, the next few weeks feel especially important. [Read more 🡒]
Wisconsin Freshman Ryan Hopkins Is Already Changing The QB Conversation
The quarterback picture in Madison already looked crowded, but a recent Big Ten Network visit to Wisconsins training camp added a new layer to the conversation. The broadcast crew spent time at Camp Randall and came away pointing out a room that has real depth, with Colton Joseph, Deuce Adams, Carter Smith and Danny ONeil all in the mix as the Badgers sort through their options.
What made the segment stand out was the attention on true freshman Ryan Hopkins, who has apparently turned heads with both his throwing and his mobility. Getting that kind of notice from an outside, unbiased source matters this time of year, especially for a program still trying to settle its quarterback picture, and it suggests Wisconsin may have more to work with than a simple veteran-versus-young-player debate. [Read more 🡒]
Wisconsin Just Entered A Huge Recruiting Test For Luke Fickell
The pursuit of elite edge talent is never simple, but Wisconsin has found itself in the middle of a particularly revealing recruiting battle with Jalanie George, one of the top names in the 2028 cycle. The five-star defensive end from Arizona has already taken visits to several Power Four programs, including Ole Miss, Auburn, Florida, Wisconsin and Miami, and his profile only grows in importance because players like him can reshape how a class is viewed before it even fully forms.
For Luke Fickell and his staff, the stakes go beyond one high-end commitment. Washington is emerging as the program to watch in Georges recruitment, and the Badgers are trying to stay in the mix against a national contender for a prospect ranked near the very top of the class. Wisconsin has spent much of Fickells tenure building toward more consistent blue-chip pull on defense, so this is the kind of test that says a lot about where the program stands when the countrys best linemen start choosing. [Read more 🡒]