Joel Klatt is putting real stock in Iowa’s playoff path, and he’s not hiding behind cautious analyst language to do it. On a recent episode of the Joel Klatt Show, the FOX college football voice said he would take the Hawkeyes over Ole Miss to reach the College Football Playoff.
That’s a notable stance with Iowa sitting at 5-1, but Klatt’s case is built on more than the record. He pointed straight at what’s left on the schedule and said he sees a road to 11-1.
"When you look at Iowa, they only have one loss, and then look at the rest of their schedule. You can see a very clear path to 11-1. I think that they are going to be favored to win the rest of their games.
"I don't think going to Minnesota is all that easy. I don't think going to Northwestern is all that easy.
I do not think playing Nebraska is going to be all that easy. And watch out for Wisconsin, because Wisconsin's defense is a lot better than people realize," Klatt said about Iowa's schedule.
For Klatt, the appeal isn’t that Iowa is flashy. It’s that the Hawkeyes keep doing what they do best, and that makes him comfortable with the quarterback situation too, even with the noise around Hank Brown and Jeremy Hecklinksi.
"This Iowa team, they just ran for 260 yards on the road, and the fact that they have a backup quarterback in right now doesn't bother me as much because Iowa is not a quarterback-centric program.
"Jeremy Hecklinski comes in and, like, 'Okay, can you throw to the tight end and hand the football off?'"It's Iowa. This is what we do," continued Klatt.
The big catch, of course, is that Iowa may not get a signature win to pad the résumé. That puts the pressure on to keep stacking wins, because Klatt believes a second loss would leave the Hawkeyes in a dangerous spot.
"I think 11-1 would get them in. I don't think they can lose a second game because they're not going to have a tremendous resume, even though I don't think the back end of their schedule gets the respect that it deserves," said Klatt about Iowa's CFP chances.
Klatt also drew the comparison to Ole Miss, with Iowa at 5-1 and the Rebels at 4-1. On paper, Ole Miss has the tougher path, but the margin is thin and every week matters if the résumé is going to hold.
Even so, Klatt still leaned Iowa.
"So, most likely to go to the CFP? I'm going to go Iowa.
I'm going to go Iowa right there. I think that they would be more likely over Ole Miss because of what's going on," Klatt ended with.
I’m with Klatt on the schedule being the whole story here. Iowa’s remaining games against Minnesota, Wisconsin, Northwestern, and Nebraska all look tricky, while Purdue and Illinois offer some relief, even if they’re hardly automatic.
Ole Miss, meanwhile, still has Missouri, Texas, Georgia, and Mississippi State on the calendar, and all of them are ranked right now. Add in Oklahoma, which just beat Texas, and the Rebels are staring at a brutal stretch.
The only real question is how strict the CFP committee will be with Iowa. Would 10-2 be enough, or does the Hawkeyes’ path demand perfection the rest of the way? My guess is Iowa can get in at 10-2, though it would likely mean opening on the road in the first round, probably at an SEC school.
Last season, Alabama, Oklahoma, and Miami all got in with two losses. Whether that precedent helps Iowa now is another matter entirely, and one the Hawkeyes would probably rather not have to test.
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The bigger question is whether the early lineup is a reflection of the best five right now or simply the safest one for this stage of the preseason. Based on the exhibition performances, theres a case for a different starting group, one that better fits how Wisconsin has looked when the ball is moving and the offense is flowing. Gard may have his reasons for sticking with the current setup, but this already feels like one of the first real decisions to watch once the games start counting. [Read more 🡒]