Nolan Winter’s place in On3’s preseason top 100 is the kind of ranking that invites a second look. The Wisconsin big man came in at No. 87, and after the season he just put together, that number feels light.
Winter isn’t being talked about like a top-10 star, and even a top-25 spot might be a stretch for some evaluators. But 87? That’s a tough sell after what he delivered for the Badgers last season.
He averaged 13.1 points and 8.5 rebounds while shooting 56.9% from the floor, piled up 12 double-doubles and finished fourth in the Big Ten in rebounding. He also shot nearly 70% from inside the 3-point line. He may not grab headlines the way high-volume scorers do, but production like that carries real weight in the Big Ten.
The progression has been steady, too. As a freshman, Winter put up just 2.4 points and 1.8 rebounds per game.
As a sophomore, those numbers climbed to 9.5 points and 5.8 rebounds. Last season, he took another clear step forward to 13.1 and 8.5.
That’s part of why the gap between rankings stands out. CBS Sports had Winter at No. 41 in its top-players list, while Field of 68 placed him No. 49 among returning players earlier this offseason. A 46-spot split between national outlets tells you just how differently he’s being viewed.
The Big Ten seems to have a firmer read on him. Winter earned a spot on the preseason All-Big Ten team, which fits the sense that he’s already established himself as one of the conference’s better big men. The next step is making the jump from good conference player to one of the league’s best overall talents.
Greg Gard thinks that ceiling is real. “The final hurdle here is mentally becoming a dominant player, which I know is in him,” Gard said during the preseason.
“I've seen it. ... Now we gotta get the world to see it.”
There have been flashes of that version of Winter already. He can finish around the rim, rebound in traffic and step outside when needed.
But there have also been stretches when he hasn’t been involved as much as his size and skill suggest he should be. That matters more now with Wisconsin’s roster changes.
John Blackwell and Nick Boyd are gone, and that shifts more responsibility onto Winter. Some nights, 13 points and eight rebounds won’t be enough. The Badgers will need him to be more assertive, call for the ball and take over for stretches.
The perimeter shot is another piece of the puzzle. Winter hit 31 3-pointers last season but shot 32.6% from deep. He told the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel that improving there is tied to his NBA hopes.
“Shooting the three more consistently is something that needs to be better if I want to be in the NBA at a high level,” Winter said. “I need to shoot that better, and I know that.”
So no, the case isn’t that Winter has nothing left to prove. He does.
He has to be more aggressive, shoot it better and handle the bigger role waiting for him in Madison. That’s enough to keep him out of the very top tier of preseason national lists.
Still, after the way he’s improved at Wisconsin, after the nearly double-double season and after landing on the preseason All-Big Ten team, No. 87 feels like a pretty low bar. By March, don’t be shocked if that number looks a lot smaller.
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