Wisconsin’s return home comes with a number that says plenty about where the Badgers stand right now: a 10.5-point favorite over Michigan State for Saturday’s Big Ten home opener.
That line arrives after Wisconsin authored the biggest win of the Luke Fickell era, and it was a wild one. The Badgers went into Happy Valley as 10-point underdogs, fell behind 17-0, threw three interceptions - each one uglier than the last - and still found a way to score twice in the final four minutes. They spent 58 minutes and 47 seconds trailing before flipping the game late against the No. 13 team in the country.
Even with that result, Wisconsin is still on the outside of the AP Top 25. The Badgers sit as the unofficial No. 26 team in the nation, the highest-ranked unranked team by votes, but they’ll go at least another week without a number next to their name.
Now at 3-1 overall and 1-0 in Big Ten play, Wisconsin turns to a Michigan State team that’s getting new life under new head coach Pat Fitzgerald but still doesn’t look built to hang with the league’s better teams. The Spartans were handled by Nebraska, 31-13, at home in East Lansing last week.
FanDuel Sportsbook has the total set at 43.5.
Michigan State’s early results have been uneven. The Spartans beat Toledo by 10, rolled Eastern Michigan 35-7, then dropped back-to-back games to Notre Dame and Nebraska.
Their showing against Notre Dame was at least competitive for a half, with Michigan State down just seven at the break on the road. But the Nebraska loss made it hard to view that start as anything more than a false positive.
One factor worth watching is the injury to Michigan State halfback Cam Edwards. The UConn transfer has been the Spartans’ best offensive player by a mile, and he accounted for most of their rushing production. That matters even more against a Wisconsin defense that should make life difficult on the ground regardless of who’s available.
There’s a temptation to look at Wisconsin’s road win and wonder if 10.5 points is too modest for a home favorite facing a middling opponent. But Big Ten games have a way of dragging everyone into the mud, and Wisconsin’s performance in Week 4 was a reminder that these matchups don’t always unfold cleanly. The Badgers may be on a roll, but they’re not walking into a spot where they can expect to steamroll Michigan State.
In Other News...
Wisconsin Just Sent The AP Poll Debate Into Overdrive
Wisconsins upset of No. 13 Penn State did exactly what a statement win is supposed to do, but it still did not quite push the Badgers into the AP Top 25. They remain unranked in the latest poll, yet they landed 102 points and now sit at the top of the received votes list, which is about as close as a team can get without actually cracking the rankings.
The path back in is clear enough, even if it is not guaranteed. If Wisconsin takes care of Michigan State next and gets a little help elsewhere, next week could finally be the one where the Badgers break through. For now, the poll debate they sparked after beating Penn State is still very much alive. [Read more 🡒]
Wisconsin Suddenly Has A Chance To Prove Penn State Was No Fluke
Wisconsins upset at Penn State did more than grab attention around the Big Ten. The Badgers walked out of Beaver Stadium with a 24-20 win, their first there since 2003, and suddenly the conversation around the program changed from surprise to scrutiny. Beating a ranked opponent on the road is one thing, but backing it up is where a team starts to earn real credibility.
Now Wisconsin gets a chance to show that performance was no one-off as it heads into a matchup with Michigan State as a double-digit favorite. The line reflects how much stock the market is putting into the Penn State result, and it puts the Badgers in a spot where expectations are no longer about hanging around. For Wisconsin, the next game is less about the upset itself and more about proving it says something real about where this team stands. [Read more 🡒]
Michigan State Enters Wisconsin Matchup With A Backfield Problem
Michigan State heads into its matchup with Wisconsin facing a significant shakeup in the backfield after Cam Edwards went down with a knee injury against Nebraska. Coach Pat Fitzgerald confirmed Edwards will miss the rest of the season, leaving the Spartans without a runner who had already piled up 304 rushing yards and three touchdowns in the early going.
Jaziun Patterson stepped in during the Nebraska game and is expected to carry the load moving forward, which adds another layer of uncertainty for a Wisconsin defense preparing for a different look. The Badgers will still have to sort through a Michigan State offense that now has to adjust on the fly, and the way that backfield settles in could shape the tone of the matchup. [Read more 🡒]