The trip back to Madison brings a tough measuring-stick game for Wisconsin, but the bigger question may be whether USC can finally handle a road night without making it messy.
The Trojans arrive fresh off a bye after stacking wins over Washington and Penn State, while the Badgers are coming home from a rough visit to UCLA. Wisconsin fell 17-7 at the Rose Bowl, a result that included an embarrassing offensive showing, even as Luke Fickell’s team somehow stayed within striking distance of a Bruins squad that has since moved into the top 10 in the US LBM Coaches Poll.
Ahead of Saturday’s Big Ten matchup on Oct. 24, Badgers Wire’s Jordon Lawrenz caught up with Trojans Wire’s Matt Zemek for a look at how this one might play out.
Zemek doesn’t see USC as a team built for comfortable road trips under Lincoln Riley.
The Trojans did leave Penn State with a win, and that alone counts as progress for a program that has struggled on Big Ten road games under Riley. But Zemek was quick to point out that the standard for that victory was not exactly towering. He also sees plenty of vulnerability on the USC side, especially on defense, which opens the door for Wisconsin to get something going offensively.
Even so, he still leans toward USC in this spot. Based on the eight-point win at Penn State, he believes the Trojans probably should be favored.
Just don’t expect a clean, smooth night. His read is that this should be a tight game, and that USC’s road history under Riley makes a stress-free performance unlikely.
The bye week, meanwhile, came at a useful time for USC. The Trojans had been on the field seven straight weekends going back to Aug. 29, and that kind of grind finally caught up to them.
Zemek pointed to tight end Mark Bowman as the player most likely to return from the break. Bowman’s value goes beyond catching passes downfield; he also gives USC a strong blocker who adds balance and structure to the offense.
He also noted that Trent Mosley is more important overall, but Bowman ranks right behind him in value to both the offense and quarterback Jayden Maiava. There are defensive players who could also benefit from the time off, though Zemek said the offense is the side that needs to be maximized most because the defense is already the weaker unit.
Maiava, for his part, drew a B+ from Zemek through USC’s first seven games. That grade came with some nuance.
Zemek said Maiava can’t be blamed much for USC’s defensive issues, but he still pointed to the fact that the Trojans did not reach 30 points against either Oregon or Washington. He called Maiava solid against Oregon, erratic against Washington, and generally very, very good overall.
He also said Maiava played well at Penn State.
Still, Zemek wants to see more in the defining moments. For him, an A-level grade means a quarterback has to rise to the occasion in every major test, and Maiava fell short of that standard against Oregon.
He went further, saying Maiava is better than Dante Moore of Oregon and Arch Manning of Texas, among others. To climb higher, Zemek said Maiava will need to beat Ohio State or Indiana for sure.
That ties directly into why he views this Wisconsin game as enormous for USC. With Ohio State, Indiana and UCLA still ahead, he called this a must-win for Riley.
In his view, USC needs to get to 10-2 to make the playoff and prove it belongs among college football’s top programs again. Until then, he said, the Trojans remain unproven.
A loss in Madison, Zemek said, would be devastating. It could leave USC staring at an 8-4 finish, which he called nowhere near good enough for the program, the administration or the fan base.
He went as far as to say a defeat here would have the pitchforks out for Riley and could put him in huge trouble before the stretch run against Ohio State and Indiana. In his words, losing to Wisconsin would be “an absolute and unmitigated disaster for the Trojans.”
As for where USC should have the edge, Zemek pointed straight to the quarterback spot. He sees Maiava versus Wisconsin’s Colton Joseph as a mismatch, especially after UCLA smothered Joseph and the Badgers’ offense.
Maiava, playing in Lincoln Riley’s system, has been above average on a steady basis this season aside from the Washington game. That is the area where USC has to separate, and if Maiava plays near his normal level, Zemek believes the Trojans will own the upper hand.
Wisconsin, he said, needs Maiava to have an off night to have a real shot.
His final call: USC 27, Wisconsin 20. Zemek expects the Trojans not to blow out Big Ten opponents on the road at night, but he also doesn’t think Wisconsin has enough offense to keep pace with a more talented USC team.
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