How Wisconsin handles Iowa on Halloween will tell you a lot about the Badgers.
That’s the real backdrop to Saturday’s Big Noon Kickoff matchup in Iowa City. Not the Big Ten race.
Not the postseason picture. Not even Wisconsin’s momentum after knocking off then-No.
16 USC last week. This one is bigger than all of that in its own way, because Iowa-Wisconsin always comes back to the same question: which team can muscle the other around?
These two programs are built on the same idea. They want to win with a punishing run game and a defense that hits, squeezes and wears you down.
And for Wisconsin, this is the kind of game that exposes exactly where it stands. How physical are the Badgers really?
How tough is this group when the conversation turns to a road trip against a team that plays its brand of football with no apologies?
I’m locking in three bold predictions for the matchup.
First, I think Wisconsin’s passing game gets back on its feet a little, even against a tough Iowa defense. Phil Parker’s unit is playing at a high level as usual, and the numbers are nasty: No. 14 nationally in total defense, No. 5 against the run at 82.9 yards allowed per game. That run defense is the real problem for anyone lining up against the Hawkeyes.
The pass defense, though, has shown some cracks. Iowa ranks No. 48 nationally there, giving up 198.4 yards per game through the air. In Big Ten play, the secondary has been even more vulnerable, allowing 264.3 passing yards per game over its first four conference games.
The Hawkeyes gave up 276 yards to now-benched Michigan quarterback Bryce Underwood, and Washington backup Elijah Brown threw for 251 of the 320 total passing yards Iowa allowed the Huskies. Jaylen Watson and Deshaun Lee have still done solid work on the outside - they’ve allowed reception percentages of 46.9 and 54.2, respectively - and Lee has three interceptions. Even so, I expect Colton Joseph and Wisconsin to find a little more life through the air than they’ve shown recently.
That said, the Badgers are going to need something from the passing game because Iowa’s run defense is that strong.
My second prediction: Wisconsin gets to the quarterback at least three times. Iowa has protected its passer well all year, giving up only six sacks, and no opponent has taken the Hawkeyes down more than twice in a game. I think that changes Saturday.
Jack Dotzler has had moments at right tackle for Iowa, but he’s also allowed 12 pressures and two sacks. That puts him in the crosshairs of Sebastian Cheeks, who leads the Power Four with 35 pressures and just posted 2.5 sacks against USC. If Wisconsin wants to make life miserable for Iowa’s quarterbacks, that’s a matchup it can attack.
And I do think Wisconsin has shown enough on the edge and up front to make that happen. The Badgers proved last week they can generate heat with four-man fronts, and even with three-man looks at times, while Mike Tressel showed he could dial up pressure against a complex, explosive USC offense. That level of detail has to carry over again this week.
Which leads to the final prediction: Wisconsin gets Jacob Harris going. The Badgers’ passing game has been almost invisible over the last two weeks, and Harris has disappeared along with it after his burst earlier in the season.
Over a three-game stretch against Eastern Michigan, Penn State and Michigan State, he hauled in 10 catches for 229 yards and three touchdowns. Since the Michigan State game, though, he’s managed just three receptions for 24 yards.
That makes him the kind of player Jeff Grimes should be leaning on. Iowa’s outside corners have been tough to separate from, and Wisconsin doesn’t really have an elite separator anywhere at receiver other than Malachi Coleman, who hasn’t caught a pass since the Michigan State game and sat out against USC, though he’s probable to play this week.
Harris, though, is a different problem. At 6-6 and 265 pounds, he’s a matchup headache and maybe the best hands Wisconsin has.
Grimes tried to get him involved with a tunnel screen against USC, but it was blown up for no gain. The idea was still the right one.
Getting Harris the ball is one of the best ways the Badgers can jump-start a passing game that badly needs it.
In Other News...
Wisconsin Gets A Huge Opening In Iowa Rivalry But One Problem Remains
Wisconsin heads into this weekends trip to Iowa with a chance to do something it has not done in four tries against its rival. Both teams arrive at 5-2, and the Badgers have built their case on one of the nations best run defenses, the kind of strength that usually travels well in a Big Ten game where possessions are precious and field position matters. Iowa, meanwhile, is coming off a loss and has already taken a hit to its backfield, giving Wisconsin a better opening than it might have expected in a series that has often tilted the Hawkeyes way.
Still, the matchup has the feel of another low-scoring slog, which helps explain why oddsmakers have only nudged Iowa ahead. The Hawkeyes remain built for defensive football, and that makes Wisconsins path clear in theory and frustrating in practice: survive the trenches, avoid mistakes and find a way to finally break the streak. The problem is that against Iowa, almost every possession turns into a test of patience, and the Badgers will have to prove their edge on the road before the rivalry turns in their favor. [Read more 🡒]
Wisconsins Quarterback Carousel Keeps Raising An Uncomfortable Question
Since Luke Fickell took over, the quarterback spot at Wisconsin has been anything but stable, and the ripple effects have reached well beyond Madison. A string of departures and injuries has pushed the Badgers into constant turnover at the most important position on the field, while former Wisconsin passers have scattered to new programs in search of better fits and clearer paths to playing time. Braedyn Locke, Cole LaCrue, Mabrey Mettauer and Nick Evers are among the names who moved on, each landing in a different situation with different levels of opportunity.
For Wisconsin, the more uncomfortable part is how familiar this has started to feel. Some of those transfers have found modest success elsewhere, others have seen limited action, and the churn only reinforces how much the Badgers are still trying to sort out the position under Fickell. The current quarterback picture is no easier to project than it was a year ago, and with former options continuing to surface in other places, the question hanging over the program is not just who starts next, but when the revolving door finally slows down. [Read more 🡒]
Kentuckys New-Look Roster Just Got An Encouraging Preseason Sign
The preseason conversation around Wisconsins perimeter game got a little more interesting this week when data analyst Evan Miyakawa released a ranking of college basketball teams with the most elite 3-point shooters on their rosters. In a sport where spacing can change everything, those kinds of lists tend to say as much about a teams ceiling as any early preview, and Wisconsin found itself grouped with some familiar names such as BYU, Kentucky, NC State and West Virginia in the broader top-end discussion.
For the Badgers, it is another reminder that shooting still matters in the Big Ten, especially with the roster landscape shifting before the season. Several of the players highlighted in the ranking, including Milan Momcilovic, Paul McNeil Jr., Finley Bizjack and Eian Elmer, are also being watched as potential 2027 NBA Draft prospects because of their shooting and long-term upside, which only adds to the intrigue around how quickly these teams can stretch the floor when the games start to count. [Read more 🡒]