The Wisconsin Badgers are back in action on January 22, heading to University Park for a Big Ten matchup against a Penn State team that’s had their number lately. And while the Badgers are rolling into this one on a five-game win streak, there’s no shortage of urgency - especially with recent history in mind.
Let’s rewind for a second. These two squads have faced off twice over the past two seasons, and both times, Penn State came out on top.
Most notably, last season’s meeting in Madison saw the Nittany Lions pull off a historic 86-75 win - their first-ever victory at the Kohl Center. That game stung for Wisconsin, particularly because they entered as favorites and held a second-half lead before Penn State erupted for a 51-point half.
That kind of collapse doesn’t fade from memory easily.
So here we are again. Wisconsin is favored, and Penn State is limping in on a five-game skid after a brutal stretch that included matchups against Illinois, Michigan, Purdue, UCLA, and Maryland. But if the Badgers want to avoid another upset, they’ll need to lock in defensively - especially on the perimeter.
The Mingo-Dilione Problem
Penn State’s offense runs through a pair of dynamic guards who can score in bunches when they’re on the floor together: freshman Kayden Mingo and junior Freddie Dilione V. And while both have been banged up recently, they remain the Nittany Lions’ best shot at snapping their losing streak.
Mingo has been a revelation in his first season. He leads the team in scoring at 15.2 points per game, shooting a strong 49.2% from the field.
While his three-point shooting is still a work in progress (25% on the season), he’s shown signs of growth lately. Over the past three games, he’s taken a third of his season’s three-point attempts - hitting 36.8% of them.
That’s a notable uptick, and it’s clear he’s growing more comfortable letting it fly from deep.
Most of Mingo’s damage still comes at the rim, but that evolving outside shot makes him a tougher cover. Wisconsin’s perimeter defenders will need to close out with urgency while still protecting the paint - not an easy balance to strike against a guard with Mingo’s burst and confidence.
Then there’s Dilione, who’s averaging 13.6 points per game while shooting 47.2% from the field and 33.3% from beyond the arc. He’s already tallied four 20-point performances this season, including a 25-point showing against Purdue. Dilione is a crafty scorer who doesn’t rely solely on the three-ball - he can create off the dribble, finish through contact, and find ways to get to his spots.
But there’s a wrinkle: injuries. Mingo recently returned from a three-game absence after suffering a broken nose in practice.
He didn’t miss a beat in his return, dropping 19 points against Maryland. Dilione, meanwhile, sprained his ankle against UCLA and was clearly limited in that same Maryland game.
That’s been a big part of Penn State’s recent struggles. Without a fully healthy backcourt, the Nittany Lions have averaged just 71 points per game over their last five. When either Mingo or Dilione isn’t at full strength, the offense becomes far more predictable - and far easier to contain.
What Wisconsin Needs to Do
For the Badgers, the game plan starts with containing Mingo and Dilione. If Wisconsin can keep both guards in check - especially by limiting Mingo’s drives and Dilione’s midrange game - they’ll put Penn State in a tough spot offensively. Beyond those two, the Nittany Lions haven’t shown the depth to consistently generate points.
The Badgers are coming in with momentum and a defense that’s been tightening up during their win streak. But given the recent history between these teams, this isn’t a game Wisconsin can afford to take lightly. The Nittany Lions have proven they can punch above their weight - especially if Mingo and Dilione find their rhythm.
Bottom line: Wisconsin has a golden opportunity to snap the skid against Penn State and keep their Big Ten momentum rolling. But to do it, they’ll need to exorcise some recent demons - and that starts with shutting down the guards who’ve given them fits before.