USC’s next road test is shaping up like another tight one on the betting board, even after the Trojans showed plenty of poise in their last trip away from home.
The No. 16 Trojans went into Beaver Stadium in Week 6, handled the White Out atmosphere and left with a 31-23 win over Penn State. After a Week 7 bye, they’re back on the road in Week 8 for an Oct. 24 meeting with Wisconsin.
The Badgers are coming in off a 17-7 loss to USC’s crosstown rival, No. 9 UCLA, and they enter at 4-2 overall and 2-1 in conference play. Even so, sportsbooks still expect Madison to be a difficult place to play, especially with Wisconsin already having done something USC has managed this year: beat Penn State at home.
ESPN Analytics gives the Trojans a 60.5 percent chance to win, but the sportsbooks are more restrained. BetMGM, Bet365 and DraftKings all list USC at -130 on the moneyline, with Wisconsin at +110. FanDuel has USC at -134 and Wisconsin at +112, while Caesars also has USC at -134 with Wisconsin at +109.
The prediction markets are close too. Kalshi traders are split by just a sliver, with 55 percent backing USC and 56 percent also siding with the Trojans.
The total has settled around 49.5 at most books. DraftKings has it at -110, BetMGM at -105, Caesars at -113 and Bet365 at -110, while FanDuel is a little lower at 48.5 and has USC at -114 to go over. On the markets, 83 percent of Polymarket traders expect more than 49.5 points, and 46 percent of Kalshi traders are leaning over 50.5.
USC is also a -2.5 favorite across all five of the sportsbooks mentioned, though the pricing varies. Traders on both Polymarket and Kalshi are leaning the same way, with 52 percent backing USC to win by 2.5 points.
The Trojans’ 31-23 win over Penn State moved them to 2-5 against the spread, which works out to a 28.6 percent chance to cover and -5.2 ATS. On the road, they are 1-1 against the spread, or a 50 percent chance to cover and -3.8 ATS. That uneven ATS profile has been tied to USC’s earlier games, when expectations were high and the defense gave up too many points.
Lately, though, Gary Patterson’s defense has looked far livelier. The unit closed out wins with Kameryn Crawford’s sack against Washington and Chasen Johnson’s fumble recovery against Penn State.
Over the current two-game winning streak, USC has allowed 54 total points. During its four-game winning streak to open the season, the Trojans gave up 91.
Lincoln Riley’s offense also delivered on the road at Beaver Stadium, and with the bye week behind them and injured players possibly set to return, bettors have plenty to like about USC heading into this one.
In Other News...
Wisconsin O-Line Frustration Just Turned Into A Bigger Badgers Problem
Wisconsins offensive line left the loss to UCLA with more than just the usual postgame disappointment. The frustration was visible, and Kevin Heywood did not hide it afterward, publicly taking aim at a teammates performance while making it clear that most of the unit had done its part. For a group that has long been expected to set the tone for the offense, the disappointment was as much about execution as it was about the way the room looked coming out of the defeat.
The attention now shifts to PJ Wilkins, whose place in the lineup has already been a moving target. He had been benched before returning to the starting five because of injury, and the bigger question for Wisconsin is how coaches handle the mix of accountability and motivation from here. When an offensive line starts airing its frustrations in public, it usually means the concern goes beyond one game, and the Badgers will need to find a way to keep the group aligned before the problem gets any larger. [Read more 🡒]
Wisconsin Heads Home With One Big Concern Before USC
Wisconsin left its Week 7 loss to UCLA with more questions than answers on offense, and the biggest ones came in the same old places. Penalties stalled drives, pass protection broke down, and the offense never found much rhythm, turning what should have been a chance to settle in after the early stretch of the season into another frustrating outing on the road.
There were bright spots buried in the grading, including strong work against the run from Junior Posa and solid coverage from Marvin Burks, but the larger picture was tougher to ignore. Wisconsin absorbed too much pressure, missed too many tackles and heads into a matchup with USC needing cleaner play across the board if it wants to keep from seeing the same problems repeat themselves. [Read more 🡒]
Wisconsin Just Sent A Message With The Standard Sheffield Wants
Winning on the road against Iowa gave Wisconsin more than another Big Ten result, it offered a glimpse of the identity Kelly Sheffield keeps pushing. The Badgers leaned on their defense to come away with the victory, and the effort from Jaela Auguste, Charlie Fuerbringer and Audrey Flanagan helped set the tone when the match started getting tight. For a team trying to stay sharp deep into conference play, that kind of production matters just as much as the final score.
Sheffield made it clear afterward that the defensive standard was the part worth building on, even as he pointed to areas the Badgers still need to clean up. That balance has become a familiar theme for Wisconsin, which can take confidence from winning in a tough environment while still knowing there is more to sharpen. The performance against Iowa looked like the sort of night the Badgers want to keep stacking, especially if the defense continues to travel with them. [Read more 🡒]