Injuries have hit the Green Bay Packers hard down the stretch, and with their playoff spot locked in as the NFC’s 7 seed, the team is expected to rest several key players in their regular-season finale against the Minnesota Vikings. That list could include both quarterbacks Jordan Love and Malik Willis, signaling that Green Bay is prioritizing health over momentum heading into the postseason.
That decision - or at least the strong possibility of it - has already shifted the betting landscape. Sportsbooks are leaning heavily toward a Vikings win, with FanDuel listing Minnesota as 5.5-point favorites at home. That’s a notable swing in perception, especially considering how these teams matched up earlier in the year.
Let’s rewind to Week 11: Green Bay was a 6.5-point favorite at Lambeau and handled business with a 23-6 win. But a lot has changed since then - most notably, the Packers' injury report has grown longer than a Wisconsin winter, and they’ve got nothing to gain in the standings come Sunday. That’s turned what could’ve been a hard-fought divisional clash into something closer to a strategic rest week for Green Bay.
Meanwhile, the Vikings are trending in the opposite direction. After a brutal midseason stretch where they dropped six of seven, Minnesota has quietly put together a four-game win streak. That includes three wins over NFC East teams and a big Christmas Day victory at home against the Detroit Lions - a win that, ironically, helped punch Green Bay’s ticket to the playoffs.
Now, with momentum on their side and the Packers potentially fielding a depleted roster, Minnesota is in a strong position to close the regular season on a high note. The betting markets agree - this is just the fourth time all season that Green Bay has been listed as an underdog.
They’ve split those opportunities, going 1-2 outright. The one win?
A gritty 31-24 Thanksgiving upset over the Lions. The two losses?
A Week 9 defeat to the Eagles and a Week 15 stumble against the Bears.
From a betting perspective, Green Bay hasn’t exactly been a friend to those who like to play the spread. They’re 6-9-1 against the number this season, despite a 9-6-1 overall record.
Minnesota, on the other hand, has been more consistent - 8-8 straight up, 8-8 against the spread. Nothing flashy, but reliable enough to keep bettors honest.
Oddsmakers also aren’t expecting fireworks in this one. The over/under is set at 36.5 points - the lowest total for any Packers game this season.
That’s even lower than last week’s 38.5-point line against Baltimore, which ended up being a shootout in the Ravens’ 41-24 win. But with Green Bay likely sitting starters and Minnesota leaning on a defense-first approach lately, the low total makes sense.
So while this Week 18 matchup might lack playoff implications or full-strength rosters, it still offers intrigue - whether you're watching for betting angles, momentum heading into January, or just one last NFC North battle before the real tournament begins.