ESPN Analytics’ game-by-game forecast gives Wisconsin something it badly needs: a path to eight wins.
After a five-win season and then a four-win season, the Badgers are in a spot where anything short of a real step forward feels like trouble for Luke Fickell. So when ESPN Analytics lays out a schedule that points to an 8-5 finish if Wisconsin takes care of the games where it holds the edge, that’s the kind of projection Badger fans will gladly grab onto.
The model doesn’t hand out exact wins and losses, but it does assign a win probability to each matchup. And in this version of the season, Wisconsin is favored in eight games: Western Illinois, Eastern Michigan, Michigan State, UCLA, Rutgers, Maryland, Purdue and Minnesota. That would mean a four-game winning streak to close the year, capped by taking back the axe.
Here’s how ESPN Analytics sees the schedule:
Week 1 - Wisconsin vs. Notre Dame: 93% win probability for Notre Dame
Week 2 - Wisconsin vs. Western Illinois: 99% win probability for Wisconsin
Week 3 - Wisconsin vs. Eastern Michigan: 94.7% win probability for Wisconsin
Week 4 - Wisconsin at Penn State: 80.3% win probability for Penn State
Week 5 - Wisconsin vs. Michigan State: 69.3% win probability for Wisconsin
Week 6 - Wisconsin at UCLA: 55.8% win probability for Wisconsin
Week 7 - Wisconsin vs. USC: 76.8% win probability for USC
Week 8 - Wisconsin vs. Iowa: 72.2% win probability for Iowa
Week 9 - Wisconsin vs. Rutgers: 70% win probability for Wisconsin
Week 10 - Wisconsin at Maryland: 53.8% win probability for Wisconsin
Week 11 - Wisconsin at Purdue: 61.3% win probability for Wisconsin
Week 12 - Wisconsin vs. Minnesota: 68.4% win probability for Wisconsin
The losses on paper are Notre Dame, Penn State, USC and Iowa - a group that lines up with what most fans would expect. The tougher calls are Penn State with a new head coach and Iowa at home, while USC’s talent level always leaves room for questions. But even with those possibilities hanging around, eight wins would still be a major jump for Wisconsin and would put the Badgers near the top of the Big Ten without pushing them into the playoff picture.
It would also lock in a bowl trip, and likely a better one than most fans would mind traveling to. The numbers will shift as the season gets closer and the games start getting played, but for now ESPN Analytics has given Wisconsin a blueprint that looks a lot better than the last two years.
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