With 29 games left in their regular season schedule, the Winnipeg Jets are trudging through what’s been a frustrating and underwhelming campaign. But before the final stretch kicks into high gear, fans will get a bit of a reprieve thanks to the Olympic break, which will pause NHL action for three weeks.
Winnipeg has just three more games-against the Florida Panthers, Dallas Stars, and Montreal Canadiens-before the league hits pause. Once play resumes, the trade deadline will be just 10 days away, and that means GM Kevin Cheveldayoff will have some critical decisions to make.
Do the Jets sell off assets and start looking toward next season? Or try to salvage what’s left of this one?
As of Saturday, the Jets are tied for 30th in the league in total points. But if you go by winning percentage-the metric used by sites like Tankathon for draft lottery simulations-Winnipeg sits 28th. That translates to an 8.8% chance of landing the top pick in the 2026 NHL Entry Draft.
Running a lottery simulator with those odds? Jets fans will like this one.
Winnipeg came out on top, securing the No. 1 overall pick. The New Jersey Devils, with just a 3.9% chance, jumped up to second, while the Vancouver Canucks, who currently hold the league’s worst record, slid down despite having the highest odds at 56.6%.
It’s a reminder of how unpredictable the lottery can be-low odds don’t always mean low results.
In previous mock simulations, Winnipeg has landed the top pick twice, the sixth pick twice, and once each at third and fifth. So while the odds aren’t in their favor, the possibility of a franchise-altering draft pick is very much alive.
Now, let’s shift to today’s matinee matchup between the Jets and the Florida Panthers at Amerant Bank Arena in Sunrise. Both teams come in on skids-Winnipeg was outplayed by the Lightning on Thursday, while Florida dropped their second straight against St. Louis.
These losses come at a tough time for two clubs still chasing wildcard spots. Despite holding the 15th-best record in the NHL, Florida is only two points closer to a playoff berth than Winnipeg.
The Jets trail the final wildcard spot by 10 points, while the Panthers are eight back. It’s a stark illustration of how unbalanced the conferences are this season.
The East has just one team with fewer than 57 points. The West?
Six teams fall into that category.
Statistically, Winnipeg (21-25-7) has struggled to generate offense, ranking 23rd in goals scored with 154. Defensively, they’ve been more solid, allowing 165 goals-tied for 13th fewest in the league. Florida (28-22-3) sits 19th in goals scored (164) and 21st in goals against (174), showing that their defensive issues have been just as problematic as their scoring inconsistencies.
Injuries have played a significant role in both teams’ struggles. Winnipeg has been without key contributors like Dylan Samberg, Adam Lowry, Cole Perfetti, Connor Hellebuyck, and Neal Pionk at various points. Florida, meanwhile, has missed major pieces in Seth Jones, Matthew Tkachuk, and Aleksander Barkov.
Given all that, it’s surprising to see these numbers from two franchises that were among the NHL’s elite not long ago. Florida, the defending Stanley Cup and President’s Trophy winner, hasn’t looked like the juggernaut of recent years. But with Tkachuk already back in the lineup and Barkov skating again, there’s still hope in South Florida for a late-season push and a shot at a third straight Cup.
Winnipeg? The optimism has shifted.
At this point, the focus has turned toward the draft and the potential for a rebuild-or at least a retool. The next few weeks will be telling.
No morning skates today due to the early puck drop (3 p.m. Central), but here’s what we’re expecting for lineups:
Florida Panthers Projected Lineup:
Florida is expected to get a bit of a jolt with Brad Marchand returning to the lineup after missing a few games. However, Anton Lundell is still sidelined and likely won’t dress.
Winnipeg Jets Projected Lineup:
The Jets are making a few tweaks. Tanner Pearson will sit, with Gustav Nyquist getting the nod. Head coach Scott Arniel also shuffled his second and third-line centers in an effort to spark some much-needed secondary scoring.
Team Leaders:
For Winnipeg, the offensive load continues to fall on the shoulders of Mark Scheifele (64 points), Kyle Connor (61), and Josh Morrissey (46). Florida’s top producers include Sam Reinhart (52), Brad Marchand (50), and Sam Bennett (42).
The big difference? Depth.
Florida has 12 players with at least 20 points. Winnipeg?
Just five, with two more sitting at 19.
That lack of depth scoring has been a consistent issue for the Jets all season-and it’s one of the main reasons they find themselves near the bottom of the standings.
Meanwhile, down on the farm, the Manitoba Moose are having a more encouraging season. They currently sit third in the AHL’s Central Division and are set for a two-game weekend set against the sixth-place Rockford IceHogs. A sweep could put them in striking distance of the Chicago Wolves for second place and home-ice advantage in a potential playoff series.
Goaltending has been a bright spot. Thomas Milic is bouncing back from a tough year (.877 save percentage in 2024-25) with a strong .910 mark and a 2.42 goals-against average through 17 starts-both good for 11th-best in the AHL. Dominic DiVincentiis has also been solid, posting a .903 save percentage in 21 appearances.
Like their parent club, the Moose don’t score a ton, but they play a structured, two-way game that keeps them in most contests. They’ve avoided long losing streaks, though extended winning runs have been rare too-outside of a six-game heater back in November.
As the Jets prepare for their final games before the Olympic break and the Moose continue their playoff push, the organization finds itself at a crossroads. The next few weeks will shape not only how this season ends-but potentially how the next one begins.