The Winnipeg Jets are hanging tough in the wildcard race, consistently picking up points in recent games. They've only outright lost 4 of their last 16 matchups, which is a testament to their resilience.
However, despite their efforts, they've only moved from the 5th worst record to the 7th. With five teams just ahead of them with two or fewer points, the Jets could inadvertently lower the value of their upcoming first-round draft pick if they continue this trend.
Starting Tuesday, the Jets face a challenging stretch with four games against teams that have historically given them trouble: the Colorado Avalanche, the Dallas Stars, and today's opponents, the Vegas Golden Knights. With only the more manageable Chicago Blackhawks in the next five contests, the Jets might only snag 2-3 out of a possible 10 points, potentially stalling their climb in the standings.
Let's dive into Game 1 of this tough run:
The Jets, sitting at 29-29-12, are tied for 26th place in the NHL with 70 points this season. They've scored 199 goals (tied for 24th) and allowed 219 goals (tied for 19th).
Mark Scheifele leads the charge with 31 goals, 52 assists, and 83 points, though he's been stuck there for a few games. Kyle Connor shares the goal-scoring lead, while Gabriel Vilardi trails with 27 goals.
On the other side, the Vegas Golden Knights boast a 32-25-14 record, placing them 18th in the league with 78 points. They've netted 224 goals (14th) and conceded 221 (21st). Pavel Dorofeyev tops the goal chart for Vegas with 34, Mitch Marner leads in assists with 51, and Jack Eichel is the points leader with 74.
When comparing the two teams head-to-head, the Knights have clear advantages in goals scored, power play success, and penalty killing, which could be pivotal in this matchup.
The Jets are 5 points behind the Nashville Predators for the Western Conference's final wildcard spot. Meanwhile, the Golden Knights sit 2nd in the Pacific Division but could slip if the Edmonton Oilers or Los Angeles Kings finish strong.
Lineup projections suggest no major changes for the Jets, with Vladislav Namestnikov and Nino Niederreiter still in non-contact jerseys. Expect Connor Hellebuyck to return to the net, which might be a relief for those hoping for a draft pick boost, as backup Eric Comrie has been on a hot streak with six straight wins.
Advanced stats show that while both teams have similar actual goal percentages at 5-on-5, the Golden Knights are more proficient at creating scoring chances. Despite being 18th in even-strength goals, Vegas should have scored the 5th most based on their play. Conversely, the Jets' actual goals percentage is better than expected, ranking 20th instead of 24th.
As the Jets gear up for this challenging stretch, their ability to capitalize on opportunities and tighten up defensively will be key to navigating these tough matchups.