The Winnipeg Jets kicked off their road trip on a high note with a win in New Jersey, but the challenge ramps up significantly as they head south to face the red-hot Tampa Bay Lightning. While that victory was a much-needed morale boost, it didn’t do much for the Jets in the standings.
With the Sharks, Kings, and Kraken all picking up wins on Tuesday, Winnipeg remains stuck near the bottom of the NHL in points percentage. As of now, they sit 28th in the league-just a few spots away from the basement and firmly in the mix for a high lottery pick come draft time.
Draft Lottery Watch: Where Things Stand
If the NHL Draft Lottery were held today, Winnipeg would be holding onto some of the better odds to land a top pick. According to Tankathon's simulator, the Jets are among the teams with legitimate chances to move up the board.
In one simulated scenario, the Calgary Flames cashed in on their 11.9% odds to land the first overall pick, while the Columbus Blue Jackets made a massive leap from 12th to 2nd. Winnipeg, in this mock, ended up selecting sixth overall-landing 6’3” left-shot defenseman Albert Smits over center Caleb Malhotra.
Whether that’s the direction GM Kevin Cheveldayoff would actually go remains to be seen, but it’s the kind of decision that could shape the franchise for years to come.
But First, Tampa
Before we get too deep into draft talk, there’s a game to be played tonight at the Benchmark International Arena in Tampa. And it’s a big one-at least for the Lightning.
These are two teams heading in very different directions this season. Tampa Bay enters the matchup with the second-best record in the NHL, while Winnipeg is clinging to the fourth-worst point total in the league.
Tampa has been on an absolute tear since December 20th, going 15-1-1 over their last 17 games. That stretch includes an 11-game win streak-coincidentally, the same length as Winnipeg’s longest losing skid this season.
The Bolts are doing it at both ends of the ice. Defensively, they’ve allowed just 130 goals all season, second fewest in the NHL, thanks in large part to the elite goaltending of Andrei Vasilevskiy.
Offensively, they’re humming too, with 179 goals scored-tied for sixth in the league.
Winnipeg, meanwhile, continues to tread water. The Jets are 6-6-3 over their last 15 games, and while they’ve been competitive in most of those contests, the results haven’t been enough to lift them out of the bottom tier of the standings.
Defensively, they’re middle of the pack with 161 goals allowed (13th in the NHL), but it’s their scoring that continues to be a problem. With just 153 goals for, they’re tied for 23rd in the league-well below where they need to be to make a serious playoff push.
By the Numbers: A Tale of Two Teams
Looking at the year-to-date team and goaltending metrics, the gap between these two clubs becomes even clearer. Tampa has a half-goal advantage over Winnipeg in both goals scored and allowed per game.
Their special teams are more efficient, and their goaltending has been more consistent. That 21-point difference in the standings isn’t a fluke-it’s the byproduct of elite execution on one side and inconsistency on the other.
The Lightning are in a tight race for the Atlantic Division crown, holding a one-point lead over the Detroit Red Wings with three games in hand. They’re also battling the Carolina Hurricanes for the top spot in the Eastern Conference. In short, Tampa is playing for home ice and a deep playoff run.
Winnipeg, on the other hand, is staring down a steep climb just to make things interesting. They’d need to make up ground on four teams just to get into a tie for the final Western Conference wildcard spot.
And even that would require them to win over 65% of their remaining games while hoping teams like Los Angeles, Seattle, and San Jose stumble to a .500 finish. That’s a tall order, and one that feels increasingly out of reach.
According to MoneyPuck, the Jets currently have a 6.7% chance of making the postseason-seventh worst in the league.
Familiar Faces, Brief Connections
There are a couple of minor ties between these two franchises. Former Jets prospect Simon Lundmark recently made his NHL debut with the Lightning but has since been sent back to the AHL’s Syracuse Crunch. And if memory serves, Vladislav Namestnikov spent time in Tampa earlier in his career, adding a bit of familiarity to the matchup.
Top Scorers to Watch
As both teams hit the ice tonight, here’s a quick look at the top offensive producers from each side:
Tampa Bay Lightning - Top 4 Scorers: (Names and stats not provided in original article)
Winnipeg Jets - Top 4 Scorers: (Names and stats not provided in original article)
What’s at Stake
For Tampa, this is a game they’re expected to win, and one they need to stay atop the East. For Winnipeg, it’s another opportunity to play spoiler-or at least show signs of life in a season that’s been short on consistency. Whether they’re chasing a miracle playoff run or simply trying to build momentum for next year, every shift matters.
One thing’s for sure: if the Jets are going to make any noise down the stretch, it has to start with games like this. And against a team playing as well as Tampa, they’ll need to bring their best.