The 2026-27 NHL season is still young, but the Canadian playoff picture already has a few clear fault lines. Through Thursday’s action, every Canadian team except the Vancouver Canucks is either sitting in a playoff spot or within five points of one, with games in hand helping some clubs keep pace.
That leaves the annual debate wide open: which Canadian teams are actually going to get in?
Matt Larkin is sticking with his preseason trio: the Edmonton Oilers, Montreal Canadiens and Ottawa Senators. He’s not buying Toronto’s early stability, pointing to a defense that is still “way too messy” to trust over the long haul. He’s also not convinced the Winnipeg Jets’ return in the trade for Connor Hellebuyck will deliver enough immediate help, and he sees Calgary’s recent surge as tied heavily to Devin Cooley, who is now on injured reserve.
Paul Pidutti would keep Edmonton, Montreal and Ottawa in the field too, but he’s adding Winnipeg to the mix. He’d like to see Toronto rewarded for what he called a creative, aggressive offseason, but he doesn’t think the Maple Leafs can survive the Atlantic Division grind unless their 5-on-5 play or goaltending takes a big step forward.
In his view, the Western Conference is crowded with teams that don’t inspire much confidence, and that opens the door for the Jets, who he described as a scrappy, veteran group with low expectations and a clean post-Hellebuyck slate. He’s betting on them to come out of the mess and into an April whiteout in Manitoba.
Steven Ellis went a different direction, landing on Edmonton, Montreal and Toronto. He praised Linus Ullmark’s play for Ottawa, but said the Senators are asking too much of him and can’t be trusted behind him with Jonas Johansson and Samuel Ersson in the picture.
He also wants more from Dylan Cozens, Ridly Greig and Fabian Zetterlund, even while acknowledging Tim Stützle is “obliterate opponents.” On Toronto, Ellis said the forwards are still settling into an identity, but the lines are starting to click.
The defense, though, remains a problem, and he still sees enough upside for the Leafs to grab one of the final Wildcard spots.
Scott Maxwell took the most cautious route, saying only Edmonton and Montreal will make it. He was high on Ottawa before the season because of its defensive structure, underrated offense without Brady Tkachuk and elite goaltending from Linus Ullmark, but he says the structure has not been as strong and the lack of depth behind Ullmark is a concern.
He’s also not sold on Toronto or Winnipeg, calling both inconsistent in their own zones. Even with that skepticism, he still believes Edmonton and Montreal have enough to get there, with the Oilers leaning on Connor McDavid’s historic start and the Canadiens getting strong goaltending from Jacob Fowler.
Anthony Trudeau also left Winnipeg out, but kept Ottawa in alongside Edmonton and Montreal. He said he has seen enough of the Jets “crash back down to Earth.”
On Toronto, he trusts the Oilers and Canadiens more to cover for uneven underlying numbers than the Maple Leafs, and he pointed to their recent playoff pedigree as a reason they’re better equipped to handle rough stretches. Trudeau also said Ottawa, which has been stingy under coach Travis Green, has started to look like its recent successful versions again with Jake Sanderson and Artem Zub back in the fold.
He noted the wild swings caused by the tandem of Ersson and Johansson, but said Ullmark will return eventually and that “a strain beats the heck out of a tear.”
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