Connor Hellebuyck has reached the stage where his name no longer sits comfortably in the present tense in Winnipeg. Trade chatter around the 33-year-old goalie is loud for a reason: very few players with three Vezina Trophies ever become available, and the kind of goaltending Hellebuyck brings can change the ceiling for a playoff team in a hurry.
That’s also what makes this such a tough call for any front office. Winnipeg’s price would be steep, and the bigger question is not whether Hellebuyck has been great.
It’s whether a team is buying the next several years of elite play, or paying a premium for what he already did. He carries an $8.5 million AAV through the 2030-31 season, so the decision comes with real long-term risk attached.
To get at that, the most useful thing is to look beyond the hype and check how goaltenders like Hellebuyck age. The numbers here are based on every qualified goalie from the 2007-08 regular season through the 2025-26 regular season, with play measured by Goals Saved Above Expected per game. That’s the cleaner lens, since it accounts for shot quality and different team environments better than raw save percentage.
By that measure, Hellebuyck’s career has been almost absurdly strong. Outside of a rough sophomore year, he has consistently ranked among the best goalies in the league, and during the 2019-24 stretch he looked like one of the sport’s true difference-makers.
The encouraging part for any team considering a swing is that elite goalies can absolutely stay elite into their 30s. A group of 15 comparable netminders - all of them better than league average across hundreds of games before their age-33 seasons, and all of them with at least three more seasons after that - held up reasonably well.
Over the next three seasons, that group sat at the 57th percentile. Over the next five seasons, it was still at the 54th percentile, though the sample gets smaller there.
Still, the range of outcomes matters. Henrik Lundqvist and Roberto Luongo, two of the clearest comparables for Hellebuyck, went in different directions late in their careers. Lundqvist stayed excellent right to the end, while Luongo slipped closer to league average in his final years with the Florida Panthers.
There are two caution flags for anyone thinking about paying Winnipeg’s asking price. First, goaltender durability matters, and this comparison doesn’t capture the older goalies who disappeared from the league because of injuries or other off-season exits. Teams can get cap relief when that happens, but the assets they surrender in a trade are gone for good.
Second, even when these goalies remained useful, many still declined relative to both their own standards and the rest of the league. That’s the crux of the Hellebuyck debate.
The safest expectation is that he keeps being a good goalie for years. What becomes less certain from here is whether he still looks like the league’s top puck stopper.
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