The Winnipeg Jets are staring down a defining stretch of their season - and it starts Thursday night in Tampa Bay. With a playoff spot still very much up for grabs, this upcoming road trip isn’t just a test of talent; it’s a gut check. The Jets will be facing some of the NHL’s elite, and every point they can steal on the road could go a long way in shaping the direction of their season.
Their matchup against the Tampa Bay Lightning is more than just another game on the calendar. It’s a measuring stick.
A win could reinforce the idea that Winnipeg should stay aggressive at the trade deadline and keep pushing for a fourth consecutive playoff berth. A loss - especially a lopsided one - might force the front office to start thinking about next year.
They’re coming off a gritty win over the Devils, but it wasn’t exactly a confidence booster wire to wire. Winnipeg built a commanding 4-1 lead, only to nearly cough it up down the stretch. That kind of lapse won’t fly against a team like Tampa Bay, who’ve been steamrolling opponents with the league’s hottest offense and a defense that’s just as stingy.
Offense Trending Up - But Still a Work in Progress
Let’s start with the positives: Winnipeg’s offense has come to life in recent weeks. After a sluggish start to the season, they’re now averaging 3.21 goals per game - a number that once had them among the league’s bottom feeders but has since climbed toward the middle of the pack.
The top line of Kyle Connor, Mark Scheifele, and Gabe Vilardi has been carrying the load, combining for 17 goals over their last 14 games. That trio has been consistently dangerous, giving Winnipeg a legitimate top-line threat that can go toe-to-toe with just about anyone.
What’s made a real difference lately, though, is the emergence of the second line. Jonathan Toews and Cole Perfetti have added some much-needed spark, and with Alex Iafallo rounding out the trio, that unit has chipped in nine goals over the same 14-game stretch. It’s not an offensive explosion by any means, but it’s a noticeable step up from where they were earlier in the season.
That said, the bottom six remains a concern. Cole Koepke and Tanner Pearson have each found the net three times recently, but overall, the depth scoring still hasn’t clicked. Several players are stuck at one or two goals over this stretch, and that kind of production won’t cut it - especially against a team like Tampa that can roll four lines and make you pay for every mistake.
Tampa Bay: A Juggernaut on Both Ends
The Lightning are rolling. At 33-14-4, they’re tied with Minnesota for the second-best record in the league, and they’ve dropped just two of their last 17 games. That’s not just winning - that’s domination.
Offensively, they’re averaging a blistering 4.06 goals per game over that span. Defensively, they’ve been just as good, allowing only 2.29 goals per contest. That’s a terrifying combo, and it puts Winnipeg in a position where they’ll need to be nearly perfect to keep pace.
Nikita Kucherov is on another level right now. He’s racked up 38 points in his last 17 games and remains one of the most dangerous players in the league with the puck on his stick.
But it’s not just Kucherov. Tampa’s depth is overwhelming.
Jake Guentzel and Brandon Hagel are both averaging over a point per game during this stretch. On the blue line, Darren Raddysh and Ryan McDonagh are also producing at a high clip. And then there’s Anthony Cirelli and Gage Goncalves - not exactly household names, but both play critical roles in Tampa’s relentless offensive attack.
For Winnipeg, the challenge is clear: they need to rediscover the defensive identity that made them one of the league’s toughest teams to play against over the past two seasons. That means tight gap control, disciplined zone coverage, and smart puck management - especially in transition, where the Lightning can be lethal.
Between the Pipes: Hellebuyck vs. Vasilevskiy
Goaltending will be a major storyline in this one, and both teams are leaning on proven veterans.
Connor Hellebuyck enters with a 13-14-6 record, a 2.70 goals-against average, and a .902 save percentage. His career numbers against Tampa Bay are a bit of a mixed bag - 9-3-1, but with a 3.73 GAA and .886 save percentage in 14 games. He’s going to have to be sharp, because the Lightning don’t need many chances to put the puck in the net.
On the other side, Andrei Vasilevskiy has been his usual dominant self: 22-7-3 with a 2.13 GAA and .916 save percentage. His numbers against Winnipeg - 5-7-1 with a 3.17 GAA and .891 SV% - suggest he’s had some trouble with this group in the past, but he’s been locked in lately and will be tough to beat.
What’s at Stake
This is more than just game No. 52 on the schedule. For Winnipeg, it’s a chance to prove they belong in the playoff conversation - and to show they can hang with the league’s best.
A win would be a statement. A strong performance, even in a close loss, could still offer some encouragement.
But if the Jets can’t generate offense, if the defense breaks down, or if Hellebuyck doesn’t stand on his head, the Lightning are more than capable of turning this into a long night.
The road ahead is tough, no doubt. But this game could tell us a lot about where the Jets are - and where they’re going.