With expansion talk once again circling the NHL, the question of how the Winnipeg Jets would navigate a draft next summer is starting to feel less theoretical. The Athletic recently ran through projection lists for every team if an expansion draft were held after the 2026-27 season, and that kind of exercise naturally puts Winnipeg under the microscope too.
The basic setup matters here. Using the league’s most recent expansion rules, each club would need to expose a certain amount of talent, while also meeting the requirement to leave 2 forwards, 1 defenseman, and 1 goalie eligible who are under contract or restricted free agents and have played 40 NHL games in the previous season or 70 over the last two campaigns.
In that sense, Winnipeg looks like it would be in decent shape if the NHL did move quickly. The Jets should have enough forward and defense depth to satisfy the rules without much trouble.
There are still plenty of moving parts, though. Morgan Barron could become an unrestricted free agent after this season if he does not sign an extension.
If he stays in the fold, then he would need to be included in the discussion. Parker Ford and Isaak Phillips are also potential Group 6 UFAs after the upcoming campaign, unless they get significant NHL action in 2026-27.
And while most of the Jets’ prospects would be safe, players from the same draft as Brayden Yager would be a year short of expansion eligibility.
Then there is the Connor Hellebuyck factor. If he were to be traded, everything changes. For now, though, it is impossible to pin that down with certainty.
The bigger fork in the road is the protection format itself: 11 players or 9. Mark Scheifele and Hellebuyck will see their no movement clauses switch to no trade lists next season, so the assumption here is that they would not have to be protected, even if they likely still would be. That leaves Kyle Connor and Adam Lowry as the obvious “must protects,” unless Winnipeg tried to get them to waive those protections.
Lowry’s presence complicates the 4 forwards, 4 defensemen, 1 goalie route. He may not crack the top four forwards, but the captain is the kind of player who can force a team to rethink the board.
Still, if you are only protecting four forwards, you may be looking at a group where only five players at most truly deserve to be locked in, depending on how the rest of the roster performs in 2026-27. The tradeoff is clear: protect one more defenseman, but give up three forward spots.
That is where the 11-player option comes in. It works best for teams with deep forward groups, and Winnipeg does not really fit that description right now.
Alex Iafallo and Cole Koepke can help, but they do not exactly scream expansion must-keep. If younger players like Brad Lambert, Isak Rosen, Nikita Chibrikov, and Danny Zhilkin break out this season, then the Jets could find themselves needing to protect seven forwards instead.
It really comes down to what matters more: the three extra forwards or the one extra defenseman.
The Athletic chose the path of waiving Lowry’s protection, which opens the door to the 4-4-1 setup. On defense, that led them to protect Dylan DeMelo instead of Neal Pionk, joining Josh Morrissey, Dylan Samberg, and Elias Salomonsson. Up front, their protected group was Scheifele, Connor, Gabriel Vilardi, and Cole Perfetti, with Hellebuyck in goal to complete the list.
If the league does accelerate expansion, Winnipeg’s path looks manageable. The real debate is which names deserve to be shielded, and whether the Jets would lean toward keeping extra forwards or holding onto one more defenseman.
As for the league itself, the expansion conversation keeps circling back to cities like Houston and Atlanta, both of which have been part of hockey’s broader map before. Atlanta has already lost the Flames and Thrashers, while Houston’s only previous crack at high-end pro hockey came with the WHA’s Aeros in the 1970s.
In Other News...
Adam Lowry Carries A Big Jets Question Into Next Season
Adam Lowrys place in the Jets future is settled for the long term, but the conversation around his next season is more complicated. Winnipeg locked up its captain on a five-year extension that begins in 2026-27, a sign the organization still sees him as an important part of the clubs identity. For now, the expectation remains familiar: third-line center, key penalty-kill piece, steady minutes in the middle of the lineup.
The bigger question is what comes next on the offensive side. Lowrys production dipped last season, and while the Jets value everything he brings beyond scoring, there is still a limit to how far his value can stretch if the points do not rebound. How he looks over the upcoming season will go a long way toward shaping the conversation around his role, even with his contract situation already mapped out. [Read more 🡒]