West Virginia gets its bye week at 5-3 overall and 2-3 in Big 12 play, but the stretch waiting on the other side is a brutal one. Three ranked teams are lined up in the final month, and ESPN’s FPI matchup predictor has laid out the Mountaineers’ odds for all four games.
The roughest number on the board is the opener at Texas Tech, where West Virginia is given an 11% chance to win. That feels too low to the eye, especially since the Red Raiders are not the same immovable team they looked like a year ago.
They were fortunate to still be unbeaten before last week’s game against Cincinnati, and while the Mountaineers are not expected to pull the upset in Lubbock, their offense should at least give them a fighting chance. The expectation here is more in the high 20s to low 30s.
Kansas is next, and that number looks even harder to justify. The Jayhawks have only one win over a Power Four team this season, and that came last week against Baylor by a single point.
They also lost by 17 at Utah and by 11 at Kansas State, which makes the FPI projection feel overly cautious. West Virginia should be looking at a much better shot than the current line suggests.
Houston comes after that, and this one carries more of a legit test than the odds might imply. The Cougars pushed Utah to the wire and beat Oklahoma State by three, and their only other loss was a two-point road defeat at Texas Tech in a game they nearly stole.
Still, there is reason for some confidence if you’re looking from the West Virginia side: Houston is 1-2 against Power Four teams on the road, and WVU beat the Cougars last year with less offensive talent against a stingier Houston defense. This Mountaineers offense has been one of the best in the nation, while Houston sits 68th nationally in total defense.
Then comes the finish at Utah, and that one sounds every bit as difficult as it should. The Utes are playing like one of the best teams in the country, and the setting only adds to the challenge: Rice-Eccles at night, on Black Friday, with plenty on the line for Utah.
West Virginia’s offense means it will have a shot in every game, but this matchup feels like the kind of grind TCU’s defense can create. Utah brings the same physical, mistake-free style, except with a top-10 offense attached.
In Other News...
WVUs Offense Has Two Stars But One Big Stretch-Run Concern
West Virginias offense has leaned heavily on a pair of stars through the bye week, and the numbers help explain why the unit has looked so dangerous at times. Quarterback Mike Hawkins Jr. has played at an elite level, while running back Cam Cook has been one of the most productive backs in the country, ranking third nationally in rushing yards. The rest of the offense has been a mixed bag by comparison, with the articles grades and snap counts showing a group that has delivered enough support to keep the Mountaineers moving, but not always with the same week-to-week consistency.
The stretch run will be about whether West Virginia can get more from the pieces around those two difference-makers. The bye week gives the staff a chance to reset, evaluate where the offense has been strong and where the weak spots have shown up, and then decide what changes might help as the season resumes. For a team with obvious firepower at quarterback and running back, the bigger question is whether the supporting cast can rise enough to keep the offense from becoming too dependent on Hawkins and Cook. [Read more 🡒]
West Virginia May Have A Star QB It Can't Take For Granted
Mike Hawkins Jr. has been one of the biggest reasons West Virginias offense has looked dangerous this fall. The Mountaineers quarterback is drawing national attention for production that goes well beyond the box score, sitting ninth among quarterbacks in PFF grades while piling up efficiency marks that separate the truly productive passers from the merely busy ones.
Hawkins has also given West Virginia a rare blend of explosiveness and restraint, leading the nation in rushing touchdowns while ranking near the top in yards per completion and adjusted yards per pass attempt. The deeper concern for the Mountaineers is how much of that growth has come from a quarterback who is making difficult throws, creating chunk plays and limiting mistakes despite a completion rate shaped by aggressive downfield attempts and a few too many drops around him. [Read more 🡒]
WVU Defense May Have Found An Identity At The Perfect Time
West Virginias defense has spent much of conference play trying to find a rhythm, but the last two games offered a clearer picture of what this unit wants to be. Against Virginia and TCU, the Mountaineers did a better job taking away the run, getting after the quarterback and cutting down on the explosive plays that had too often put them on the back foot earlier in the league schedule. Even when opponents moved into West Virginia territory, the defense was more reliable about forcing stops and making drives work for every yard.
That improvement has come with some noticeable shifts in personnel usage and pressure generation, the kind of changes that can matter a lot when the margins get tighter in November. The red zone work has also held up better in those recent outings, which is exactly the sort of trend West Virginia has been searching for after a shaky start to conference play. Whether this is the start of a lasting identity or just a brief stretch of good timing is still the question hanging over the unit. [Read more 🡒]