ESPN’s latest Football Power Index doesn’t exactly light up the scoreboard for West Virginia’s 2026 outlook, but it does give the Mountaineers a few spots where the model sees real opportunity.
The updated projection has WVU finishing 5.2-6.8, a slight drop from the previous 5.3-6.7 estimate. ESPN also lists the Mountaineers with a 43.3-percent chance of reaching six wins, down from 45.3, along with a 0.5-percent shot at the Big 12 title, a 1.0-percent chance of making the College Football Playoff, and a 0.0-percent chance of getting to the National Championship Game.
WVU sits at No. 62 in the FPI, up from No. 64.
ESPN describes the Football Power Index as “a measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of a team's performance going forward for the rest of the season. FPI represents how many points above or below average a team is.
Projected results are based on 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season using FPI, results to date, and the remaining schedule. Ratings and projections update daily.”
The toughest swing game on the schedule, at least by the model’s numbers, is the Sept. 19 matchup with Virginia in Charlotte. WVU’s win probability there sits at 17.5 percent, down from 23.1, while Virginia is ranked No. 24 in the FPI, up from No.
- The two programs have barely crossed paths in recent decades, last meeting in a bowl game in 2002, when Virginia rolled 48-22.
Before that, their previous matchup came in 1985. Virginia leads the series 12-10-1 and has taken the last three meetings, while West Virginia won the six before that.
A few weeks later, the model gives the Mountaineers a much better shot against Cincinnati. WVU’s chances in the Oct. 17 game are 39.9 percent, unchanged from before, with the Bearcats ranked No. 47, down from No.
- West Virginia owns a strong edge in the series at 18-3-1 in 22 meetings and has won four straight, including the last two as Big East opponents and the first two after Cincinnati joined the Big 12.
In the 2024 meeting, WVU leaned on two defensive touchdowns in a 31-24 win.
The Oct. 24 trip to TCU comes with a 28.0-percent win chance, just a tick below the prior 28.1. The Horned Frogs are No. 43 in the FPI, the same spot as before.
The series has swung back and forth over the years: TCU won four of the first six Big 12 meetings, including a pair of ranked clashes, before WVU answered by taking five of six. Last season, though, the Horned Frogs handed the Mountaineers a 23-17 loss in Morgantown.
West Virginia’s bleakest numbers come on Nov. 7 at Texas Tech. The model gives the Mountaineers only a 6.3-percent chance there, unchanged from the previous update, while the Red Raiders remain No. 10 in the FPI.
Tech leads the all-time series 8-7, though WVU won six of the first eight meetings. Since then, the Mountaineers have managed just one win in the last seven.
The last two games have been lopsided, with Texas Tech outscoring WVU 101-15.
The Nov. 14 home game against Kansas is one of the more playable spots on the slate, at least on paper. WVU’s win probability is 46.6 percent, down from 50.4, while Kansas is now No. 51 in the FPI, up from No.
- West Virginia leads the series 11-3, with ten wins in the first eleven matchups.
Kansas, though, has claimed two of the last three, including a 41-10 rout last season.
The regular season ends Nov. 27 at Utah, where WVU gets a 15.0-percent chance to win, down from 18.7. Utah is ranked No. 26, up from No.
- The Mountaineers have not beaten the Utes, falling in two bowl games and once in their only Big 12 meeting.
WVU lost to Utah in the Liberty Bowl in 1964, then again in 2017, though half the team sat out that game. Their first regular-season meeting came last season, and Utah dominated 48-14.
In Other News...
WVU Added A New DB But One Key Question Still Looms
West Virginia added another defensive back to its future plans this week when former Georgia defender JaCorey Thomas committed to join the program beginning in the 2026 season. Thomas got a look with the Carolina Panthers at rookie minicamp after going undrafted, but he did not sign an NFL contract, leaving his next stop pointed toward Morgantown instead.
For the Mountaineers, the move adds more depth to a position group that never stops needing it, even if Thomass exact timetable on the field is still unsettled. His arrival does not push anyone out of the current rotation, and the remaining question is when, not whether, he will actually suit up once he gets to campus. [Read more 🡒]
WVUs Defensive Breakthrough Came With One Immediate Concern
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The problem for West Virginia is that the breakthrough came with a major health scare attached. Darius Wiley went down with a lower-body injury during the game and had to be carted off the field, leaving the Mountaineers waiting for an update on his condition. For a defense that finally flashed the activity and edge it wanted, the next question is whether it can keep that momentum if Wiley is forced to miss time. [Read more 🡒]
WVUs Schedule Just Got More Interesting After Week One
Week Zero did not do West Virginia many favors on the schedule front, and the early returns across the Mountaineers upcoming opponents already have a different feel to them. The roundup of recent game performances showed how much can change in a hurry, with several future foes opening their seasons by setting the tone for what should be a more revealing stretch once the schedule gets rolling.
Oklahoma State and Cincinnati in particular now sit on opposite ends of the early conversation, which matters for a West Virginia team trying to judge where the real trouble spots might be. The Cowboys opener raised immediate questions about their polish, while Cincinnatis debut suggested a much higher ceiling at quarterback than some may have expected. For the Mountaineers, the bigger picture is still forming, but the first week at least gave a few upcoming matchups a little more edge. [Read more 🡒]