West Virginia has already flipped one preseason script, and now the real fun starts.
Three games into the year, the Mountaineers are 3-0 heading into Big 12 play, and that alone changes the conversation around the rest of the schedule. A win over Virginia by two scores was the kind of result that forces a fresh look at what this team might become. Now the question is simple: how far can WVU go from here?
There are still plenty of hurdles ahead, and a few of them are the kind of games that can swing either way. I’d still call three of them toss-ups, even if the lean has shifted in West Virginia’s favor more than once already.
And if this team keeps improving at the pace it has through September, a couple of the games that look shaky now could look a lot better later. Double-digit wins?
That’s not a wild idea anymore. It can happen.
The first big swing game is Oklahoma State, and it’s one I’ve gone back and forth on. I’ll get deeper into that one later this week in our weekly score prediction story, but there’s no denying the setup is interesting. Mountaineer Nation will have all day to get fired up for it, and Oklahoma State will be walking into a crowd that’s fully against it for the first time in a while.
After that comes Iowa State, and this is where the calendar starts to matter. West Virginia hasn’t opened 5-0 in so long that even talking about it feels a little strange, but Jack Trice Stadium is one of the tougher trips in the Big 12, so I’m not racing to lock this one in. Still, Iowa State doesn’t look like a team built to trade punches with WVU’s offense, and I’m not putting much stock in the 55 points the Cyclones hung on Bowling Green.
Arizona is another one that feels very winnable, but not without danger. By then, West Virginia would be heading into its sixth straight game without a bye, coming off a possible back-and-forth battle with Oklahoma State and then a physical scrap with Iowa State.
That kind of stretch can wear on a team. At the same time, the Wildcats’ passing game can absolutely stress a defense, and Noah Fifita could cause problems.
This is one I could easily flip by game week.
The Cincinnati game feels like a chance for WVU to get rolling again. Miami (OH) is a respectable MAC team, but giving up 31 points to them at home raised an eyebrow.
This one should be physical, with both teams bringing seasoned offensive lines to the table. West Virginia also has had Cincinnati’s number for years, and it’s hard to see the Mountaineers going empty on a two-game homestand.
The offense could have a big day.
Then comes a road trip to TCU, and the spot really stands out. West Virginia looks like the better team, and the Horned Frogs will be coming through a stretch that includes BYU and rival Baylor.
There’s a bye in there, but that doesn’t erase the possibility that TCU comes out of those games a little flat or emotionally drained. This is a strong setup for the Mountaineers.
The trip to Texas Tech is a different kind of challenge. The Red Raiders haven’t looked as dominant as many expected, and West Virginia gets the added benefit of a bye week before that one.
Before the season, I had WVU with no shot here. Now I’d put it around 25%.
Tech is still loaded and has much more depth, and its close win over Houston probably says as much about the Cougars as it does about the Red Raiders.
Kansas, on the other hand, looks like one West Virginia should win. Lance Leipold has that program pointed in the right direction, and by the time the Jayhawks get to Morgantown, they should be better than they are right now.
But this matchup still feels like a strong one for the Mountaineers. Kansas’ offense has some of the same issues Virginia did, only in a watered-down form, and if they have to lean more on the run game, they may become more efficient.
Even so, if WVU can slow Beau Pribula and handle first-year starter Isaiah Marshall at home, the edge belongs to the Mountaineers.
Houston is another game I keep circling back to. Willie Fritz has that program in a really good spot, and the offense has caught up to the defense, which puts the Cougars in the conference-championship conversation.
This is one I’m still weighing. West Virginia had its best rushing day against Houston last year, and the Mountaineers should be better up front and on the ground this time around.
And again, it’s at home.
Finally, there’s Utah, and that one feels like the late-season measuring stick. It’s still early, so we won’t know for a while exactly how this plays out, but the Utes don’t appear ready to miss a beat even without Kyle Whittingham on the sideline.
By then, West Virginia should be humming on offense, but Utah will be too. The Utes always win the trench battle, and by game 12, those young offensive linemen won’t be all that young anymore.
WVU has already beaten one expectation. The rest of the schedule will tell us whether this start is the beginning of something bigger.
In Other News...
Tony Elliott Just Confirmed How Dangerous West Virginia Really Looked
Mike Hawkins Jr. gave West Virginia the kind of opener that can change the mood around a program in a hurry. In a 38-27 win over No. 25 Virginia, the Mountaineers quarterback hit 10 of 17 passes for 190 yards and two touchdowns, then added 123 rushing yards and three more scores to power an offense that looked far more explosive than many expected entering the night.
Virginia coach Tony Elliott came away impressed enough to say so, and his comments only sharpened the sense that West Virginias defense under Zac Alley was part of the story too. Elliott pointed to how the Mountaineers controlled the game and took away quarterback Beau Pribulas legs, a detail that matters because it suggests West Virginia was not just winning with one hot hand, but showing the kind of structure that can make opponents uncomfortable for a long time. [Read more 🡒]
WVUs Upset Win Looks Even Bigger After What The Grades Show
West Virginias upset of No. 25 Virginia already looked like a tone-setting win, but the postgame grades gave it even more weight. The Mountaineers handled business in a 38-27 victory, and the performance sheet from Pro Football Focus offered a clearer picture of why the result felt so convincing: quarterback Mike Hawkins Jr. was graded as the highest-rated quarterback in the country through Week 3.
The win also featured strong work from the other side of the ball, with linebacker Ashton Woods and cornerback Nick Taylor drawing especially good marks. For a West Virginia team trying to build something early in the season, those kinds of individual showings matter as much as the final score, because they hint at a defense and a quarterback room that may be settling in at the right time. [Read more 🡒]
West Virginia Looks Tougher Than Expected But One Concern Still Lingers
West Virginia came away from its latest game looking a little sturdier than many expected, with a calm, effective quarterback helping steady things and a physical presence on defense giving the Mountaineers a harder edge. Taylor stood out on that side of the ball, and Ashton Woods has quietly put together a strong run over the last two weeks, giving the defense some real momentum as the season moves forward.
The one area still worth watching is up front, where the offensive line had its roughest stretches. A true freshman on the line allowed four pressures, a reminder that development can show up quickly when the competition gets tighter, even if the long-term outlook remains encouraging. For West Virginia, the encouraging part is clear enough, but the next step is making sure that growth in the trenches catches up with the rest of the roster. [Read more 🡒]