West Virginia walks into Week 10 with a chance to make noise, but Bill Connelly’s SP+ model isn’t buying the upset hype.
Rich Rodriguez’s Mountaineers are looking for the kind of result that would send their name flashing across the college football weekend - the sort of win that would have people talking about “Mountaineers Stun Texas Tech,” or “WVU Outguns Red Raiders in West Texas Shootout.” A victory would also push West Virginia back into the AP Top 25 conversation, even if that poll no longer sits at the top of the sport’s rankings pecking order. And with Kansas coming to town next, the Old Gold and Blue have a real chance to get the country’s attention and change the way they’re being discussed.
SP+ sees a much rougher night ahead. The model projects Texas Tech 41, West Virginia 19.
That doesn’t necessarily mean the Mountaineers are doomed to stay under 20 points, though. Mike Hawkins Jr. and Cam Cook are viewed as too dangerous to be bottled up that completely, especially against a run defense that has struggled against teams that can really lean on the ground game, including Cincinnati and Houston.
The matchup also comes down to quarterback play, and the edge there belongs to Hawkins. Thomas Castellanos is a good player, and WVU may even make him look elite, but Hawkins is described as a top-10 quarterback in the country. That gives the Mountaineers a path, even if it’s a narrow one.
Zac Alley’s defense doesn’t need to be flawless for West Virginia to have a shot. It just needs to get a few stops and avoid giving up explosives over and over again. If that happens, and Hawkins and company keep things clean, the game can tilt in any direction.
The Mountaineers and Red Raiders are set for a 9:30 p.m. ET kickoff, with ESPN carrying the broadcast.
In Other News...
Ex-WVU QB Nicco Marchiol Gets Another Chance To Reopen Old What-Ifs
Nicco Marchiol is about to get another meaningful shot, and for West Virginia fans, that alone is enough to stir up some old memories. The former Mountaineer quarterback is set to start for Northwestern against No. 19 Iowa, giving him his first extensive action since last season and putting him back in the kind of spotlight he once occupied in Morgantown.
Marchiols WVU tenure included some of the programs most memorable moments in recent years, including two wins over Pitt, but his path never settled into a clean arc. Coaching changes and shifting offensive schemes helped shape a career that never quite found full traction, and his limited playing time this season at Northwestern has only added to the sense that his story has remained unfinished. Now he gets another chance to change the conversation, even if one familiar thread from his West Virginia days still hangs in the background. [Read more 🡒]
Ross Hodge Just Teased A Nonconference Opportunity WVU Fans Will Love
Ross Hodge is already looking ahead to next seasons nonconference slate, and he dropped a hint on a radio show that should catch the attention of West Virginia fans. The Mountaineers new coach said he will try to line up a game at Madison Square Garden next year, a setting that would give his program a marquee stage and a chance to test itself in one of college basketballs most recognizable arenas.
A matchup there would also fit the kind of East Coast opponent Hodge seemed to have in mind, with St. Johns mentioned as a possible fit. West Virginia and St. Johns have met before, which only adds to the appeal, but nothing is scheduled yet. For now, it is just a promising idea with plenty of intrigue for a fan base that likes the sound of big-stage basketball. [Read more 🡒]
West Virginia Is Rolling But One Bigger Test Is Already Looming
West Virginia kept the momentum going at Hope Coliseum with a 91-53 win over Stetson, and the performance had the kind of balance that can travel well once the schedule stiffens. Freshman Miles Sadler led the way with 25 points on 11-for-16 shooting, while Joson Sanon added a sharp perimeter touch by knocking down 6 of 8 from beyond the arc. The Mountaineers also shot 42% from three-point range and tightened up defensively after halftime, holding Stetson to 25% shooting in the second half.
The bigger question now is how much of that can carry into a more demanding stretch, because this was the sort of game where West Virginia could settle in early and control the tone. The offense looked comfortable, the shots were falling, and the defense never let Stetson find much rhythm, but the next tests will tell more about how real this early roll is and whether the Mountaineers can keep the same edge when the margin for error shrinks. [Read more 🡒]