West Virginia heads to Charlotte as a double-digit underdog, but ESPN’s SP+ still sees a game that stays within reach for a while before Virginia pulls away. Bill Connelly’s model projects the Cavaliers to win 30-20.
SP+ weighs offense, defense, snap-by-snap performance and tempo to come up with its forecast, and Connelly’s read is that Virginia’s edge on that side of the ball matters most. He notes that after a blowout of NC State and a buy-game laugher, Virginia is 2-0 and a projected favorite in eight of its next nine games. He also points out that the Cavaliers were “far too physical for NC State,” while adding that West Virginia may be able to meet them there.
The Mountaineers are trying to build their offense around a relentless run game with Cam Cook and dual-threat QB Michael Hawkins Jr. If that ground game gets going, Connelly says DJ Epps is waiting to punish defenses that get too focused on stopping the run. At the same time, he warns that West Virginia still isn’t a team you can fully trust after blowing an early lead against Coastal Carolina and nearly giving that game away.
Connelly’s own projection has West Virginia losing by 13, but he still expects the Mountaineers to hang around for most of the night before Virginia puts the game away late. He says that if the Cavaliers don’t finish with that final scoring drive, the result can “easily be flipped.”
There’s also a stronger upset chance here than the numbers may suggest. ESPN’s FPI gives WVU a 15.9% shot, though Connelly thinks that feels too low. He says Virginia’s dominant Week 0 win over North Carolina State may be getting too much weight, and while the Cavaliers have earned plenty of praise, they still have to prove they belong in the juggernaut conversation.
Connelly also sees the matchup as closer than it might look on paper. The biggest clear edge for Virginia is defense, where the Cavaliers have been stingy.
West Virginia, by contrast, has been inconsistent on that side, with two strong halves and two poor ones. And with the crowd expected to lean heavily toward the Mountaineers, that home-field feel should help WVU’s chances to spring the upset.
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Tony Elliott Just Confirmed How Dangerous West Virginia Really Looked
Mike Hawkins Jr. gave West Virginia the kind of opener that can change the mood around a program in a hurry. In a 38-27 win over No. 25 Virginia, the Mountaineers quarterback hit 10 of 17 passes for 190 yards and two touchdowns, then added 123 rushing yards and three more scores to power an offense that looked far more explosive than many expected entering the night.
Virginia coach Tony Elliott came away impressed enough to say so, and his comments only sharpened the sense that West Virginias defense under Zac Alley was part of the story too. Elliott pointed to how the Mountaineers controlled the game and took away quarterback Beau Pribulas legs, a detail that matters because it suggests West Virginia was not just winning with one hot hand, but showing the kind of structure that can make opponents uncomfortable for a long time. [Read more 🡒]
WVUs Upset Win Looks Even Bigger After What The Grades Show
West Virginias upset of No. 25 Virginia already looked like a tone-setting win, but the postgame grades gave it even more weight. The Mountaineers handled business in a 38-27 victory, and the performance sheet from Pro Football Focus offered a clearer picture of why the result felt so convincing: quarterback Mike Hawkins Jr. was graded as the highest-rated quarterback in the country through Week 3.
The win also featured strong work from the other side of the ball, with linebacker Ashton Woods and cornerback Nick Taylor drawing especially good marks. For a West Virginia team trying to build something early in the season, those kinds of individual showings matter as much as the final score, because they hint at a defense and a quarterback room that may be settling in at the right time. [Read more 🡒]
West Virginia Looks Tougher Than Expected But One Concern Still Lingers
West Virginia came away from its latest game looking a little sturdier than many expected, with a calm, effective quarterback helping steady things and a physical presence on defense giving the Mountaineers a harder edge. Taylor stood out on that side of the ball, and Ashton Woods has quietly put together a strong run over the last two weeks, giving the defense some real momentum as the season moves forward.
The one area still worth watching is up front, where the offensive line had its roughest stretches. A true freshman on the line allowed four pressures, a reminder that development can show up quickly when the competition gets tighter, even if the long-term outlook remains encouraging. For West Virginia, the encouraging part is clear enough, but the next step is making sure that growth in the trenches catches up with the rest of the roster. [Read more 🡒]