ESPN’s latest Football Power Index doesn’t paint a pretty picture for West Virginia’s 2026 season.
The model now has the Mountaineers finishing 5.9-6.1, a step back from the earlier 7.0-5.0 projection. WVU’s odds of reaching six wins sit at 58.9 percent, down from 81.1 percent.
The rest of the postseason picture is even thinner: a 0.1-percent shot at the Big 12 title, a 0.4-percent chance of making the College Football Playoff, and a 0.0-percent chance of getting to the National Championship Game. The Mountaineers are also slotted at No. 59 in the FPI, down from No.
ESPN says the Football Power Index is designed to measure team strength and forecast future performance. It defines the system this way: "The Football Power Index (FPI) is a measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of a team's performance going forward for the rest of the season.
FPI represents how many points above or below average a team is. Projected results are based on 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season using FPI, results to date, and the remaining schedule.
Ratings and projections update daily."
A look at the schedule shows why the projection is leaning cautious.
West Virginia already took care of Virginia in Charlotte, winning 38-27 despite entering that game with just a 15.9 percent chance to win. The Cavaliers are now No. 26 in the FPI, up from No.
- The series history is a long one, though the teams had barely crossed paths lately before that meeting.
They hadn’t played since Virginia’s 48-22 bowl win in 2002, and before that the most recent matchup came in 1985. UVA leads the all-time series 12-10-1, and the Cavaliers have won the last three, with WVU winning the six before that.
The first league game on the model’s board is Cincinnati on October 17, where West Virginia has a 39.0 percent chance to win, down from 51.2 percent. The Bearcats sit at No. 42 in the FPI, up from No.
- This series has gone WVU’s way for a long time: the Mountaineers are 18-3-1 in 22 meetings and have won four straight.
That stretch includes the final two games as Big East foes and the first two after Cincinnati joined the Big 12. The last meeting, in 2024, ended 31-24 in West Virginia’s favor thanks to two defensive touchdowns.
The following week brings a trip to TCU on October 24, and the model gives WVU a 30.3 percent chance there, down from 35.2 percent. The Horned Frogs are No. 47 in the FPI, down from No.
- This matchup has swung back and forth over the years.
In the early Big 12 days, TCU controlled the series under Dana Holgorsen, winning four of the first six, including a pair of ranked matchups. WVU answered by taking five of six after that, but last season’s 23-17 loss in Morgantown left the Mountaineers wanting more.
November 7 at Texas Tech looks like one of the toughest spots on the slate. West Virginia’s win chance there is only 11.5 percent, down from 17.4 percent, while the Red Raiders are No. 13 in the FPI, up from No.
- The series is tight on paper, with Texas Tech holding an 8-7 edge in 15 meetings.
But the recent run has tilted heavily the other way. WVU won six of the first eight, then has managed just one win in the last seven.
The last two meetings have been especially rough, with Tech outscoring the Mountaineers 101-15.
Back home on November 14, West Virginia gets Kansas, and the model likes the Mountaineers there more than most of their remaining games. WVU has a 66.8 percent chance to win, down from 73.2 percent.
Kansas is No. 70 in the FPI, down from No. 67.
The Mountaineers have controlled this series overall, leading 11-3 in 14 games. They won 10 of the first 11, but Kansas has taken two of the last three, including a 41-10 blowout last season.
The final matchup listed is Utah, where West Virginia has just an 8.4 percent chance to win, down from 13.8 percent. The Utes are No. 12 in the FPI, up from No.
- WVU has never beaten Utah, dropping both bowl meetings and the only Big 12 game between the teams.
The Mountaineers lost the Liberty Bowl in 1964, then again in 2017, though half the team sat out that game. Last season brought the first regular-season meeting, and Utah handled business in a 48-14 win.
In Other News...
West Virginia Faces A Bigger Defensive Concern Than One Bad Loss
West Virginias loss to Oklahoma State was not the kind you can pin on one bad quarter or one lopsided stat sheet. The Mountaineers actually had some encouraging numbers on defense and put up a strong rushing total, but the film still told a more troubling story. The new defensive scheme was supposed to help unsettle an opponent that likes to push the ball, yet Oklahoma State found too many ways to hit big plays and keep the pressure on.
What made the defeat sting was how often West Virginia let those chances slip through its hands. Missed tackles piled up, explosive plays came too easily, and the staff admitted the game plan simply did not work as intended. For a team trying to build momentum, the bigger concern is not just the result itself, but whether the defensive issues exposed in this one are tied to a deeper problem than a single rough afternoon. [Read more 🡒]
WVU Fans Get A Coal Rush Twist They Werent Expecting
West Virginias October 10 matchup with Arizona now has a start time and a national TV home, and it comes with an early kickoff that should give Mountaineer fans plenty of time to settle in. The Big 12 announced the game will kick at 12 p.m. ET in Morgantown and air on TNT, TruTV and HBO Max, adding another layer of visibility to a nonconference meeting that already carries some curiosity.
Arizona arrives with a little momentum after improving to 3-1 with a win over Washington State, while West Virginia will be trying to build on the familiarity of a series that has been played only once before. The Mountaineers won that 2021 meeting 31-26, and this years game lands in the middle of a busy stretch for the Wildcats, who will turn around and face Cincinnati in a late kickoff the following week. [Read more 🡒]
Rich Rod's Offense Is Giving West Virginia Fans A Real Concern
Rich Rodriguezs latest West Virginia offense is already drawing attention because it looks different from the ones fans remember from his earlier coaching stops. Through four games, the Mountaineers are throwing on just 22% of their offensive snaps, a notably lower rate than Rodriguez has typically used over the course of his career. For a coach long associated with pace and spread principles, that tilt toward the run has become one of the early-season talking points around the program.
The reasons are not hard to see, at least in broad terms. Pass protection has been an issue, and the receiver play has also factored into the equation, making it easier to understand why the offense has leaned so heavily on the ground game. Still, the bigger question hovering over West Virginia is whether a more balanced approach would make the attack harder to defend and more effective overall, even if the current numbers suggest Rodriguez is still searching for the right mix. [Read more 🡒]