Bill Connelly’s SP+ model says West Virginia is headed for another one-score battle, and not the kind the Mountaineers want.
ESPN’s projection has Cincinnati edging WVU 32-29, a result that would hand West Virginia its fourth straight loss and push the season record below .500. That would be a brutal turn after the Mountaineers opened 3-0 and sat one win away from cracking the AP Top 25 for the first time in eight years.
And really, this one looks like it could go either way. The matchup sets up as a genuine toss-up, with both teams built around the run and both carrying plenty of problems on defense. It’s the kind of game where the mirror-image comparison almost writes itself.
Cincinnati leaving Morgantown with a three-point win would hardly be a shock.
For West Virginia, the bigger picture is getting tight fast. The path to a bowl game is now looking slim, especially with what’s still on the schedule. The Mountaineers would need to finish 3-2 at worst, and the remaining stretch includes TCU, Texas Tech, Houston, Kansas, and Utah.
That makes the early-season window even more important in hindsight. Since the dog days of summer, this was always the part of the schedule that stood out as the toughest, and banking wins before the grind hit was going to matter.
Now, dropping to 3-4 would take a lot of air out of the season and undercut the momentum West Virginia built after beating Virginia in Charlotte.
It may only be year two, but Rich Rodriguez does not want this thing to snowball out of control. He has made clear that he believes this team is good enough to win, and falling at home in a game like this would be frustrating for him, his staff, and everyone in the building.
In Other News...
WVU Just Got A Secondary Boost Fans Needed Before Cincinnati
West Virginia got a welcome midweek lift ahead of Saturdays noon meeting with Cincinnati, as the Mountaineers released an updated availability report that cleared five players off the probable list. For a team trying to tighten things up on the back end, any added stability in the secondary matters, especially with conference play carrying more weight this time of year.
The bigger development is at cornerback, where starter Nick Taylor moved from doubtful to questionable, keeping alive the possibility he could be available in Morgantown. West Virginia still has one more availability update to come before kickoff, so the picture could change again, but for now the Mountaineers have a little more breathing room than they did earlier in the week. [Read more 🡒]
West Virginia's Defense Just Put More Pressure On Cincinnati Showdown
Phil Steele sees plenty of offense looming when West Virginia heads into its matchup with Cincinnati, and the concern starts on the defensive side for the Mountaineers. Both teams bring strong running games into the game, which is why Steele expects the total to climb past 62.5 and why this feels like the kind of Big 12 meeting where possession control and tackling discipline could matter almost as much as explosive plays.
For West Virginia, the challenge is making sure its own attack can keep pace if the game turns into a shootout. Steele pointed to Cam Cook and Michael Hawkins as important pieces for the Mountaineers, and their production could become even more valuable if Cincinnati is able to lean on the ground game and keep the pressure on West Virginia's defense throughout the night. [Read more 🡒]
Pat McAfees Next ESPN Deal Could Change His Place In Sports Media
Pat McAfee has already carved out a rare lane for himself in sports media, turning a former NFL punters platform into a full-scale broadcasting empire. The West Virginia native currently makes about $30 million a year from ESPN for his show and other network work, a number that already reflects just how central he has become to the companys daily sports conversation.
Now McAfee is in extension talks with ESPN, and the reported figures are eye-opening. Offers have been floated in the $60 million to $65 million range annually, which would put him atop the networks pay scale and further underscore how far his career has traveled from the field to the center of sports entertainment, after earlier deals with FanDuel and DraftKings helped build the brand he now carries. [Read more 🡒]