West Virginia has spent the last two weeks getting the SP+ prediction wrong, and if that streak holds for a third straight game, the Mountaineers might like the outcome a lot better this time.
ESPN’s Bill Connelly’s projection model has Iowa State beating WVU 29-24, and it gives the Cyclones a 61% chance to win. That lines up closely with what the ESPN Football Power Index matchup predictor is saying as well.
That kind of number makes sense when you look at the setup. This is West Virginia’s first real road game of the season, and it comes after the Mountaineers have already had to absorb some adversity for the first time.
That’s a different kind of test, especially in a place like Jack Trice Stadium. It’s not Acrisure Stadium, and it’s not the neutral-site setup WVU had against Virginia in Charlotte.
Iowa State’s crowd shows up, fills the building, and makes the venue one of the tougher ones in the Big 12.
The key for West Virginia starts up front. The Mountaineers need to create a little more spin on offense, because that would make life easier for Cam Cook and Mike Hawkins Jr. in the run game.
That part of the matchup matters because Iowa State wants to run the ball too. Running back Aiden Flora has been especially hard to bring down, with 80% of his yards coming after contact. If West Virginia can shut down the run, that becomes a major edge for the Mountaineers.
Special teams could also play a real role. Iowa State has already taken back both a kickoff and a punt for touchdowns, so WVU has to be sharp there. Jack Cassidy’s high touchback percentage means he needs to keep putting kickoffs through the end zone as often as possible, and Bryan Hansen has to avoid outkicking his coverage on punts.
In Other News...
Phil Steele Still Believes West Virginia Can Rebound Against Iowa State
West Virginias rough defensive showing against Oklahoma State left plenty of questions, but Phil Steele isnt ready to write off the Mountaineers just yet. He pointed to the matchup with Iowa State as a chance for West Virginia to steady itself, saying he still sees the Mountaineers as the better team heading into the weekend.
Even with West Virginia listed as an underdog, Steele expects the Mountaineers to be in position to either win outright or at least cover the spread. He also weighed in on a slate of other college football games set for the weekend, but his West Virginia takeaway was the one that stood out: a rebound still looks possible. [Read more 🡒]
WVU Faces A Familiar Road Test With Its Slide Suddenly In Focus
West Virginia heads to Jack Trice Stadium on Saturday for a noon kickoff against Iowa State, with the matchup set to air on TNT, truTV and HBO Max. It is the kind of road test that can sharpen the picture for both teams, since they enter at 6-6 and the Cyclones are a short 3.5-point favorite, a sign that neither side has much margin for error.
For the Mountaineers, the trip carries the feel of a familiar proving ground, the sort of place where recent frustrations can either keep snowballing or be interrupted in a hurry. The numbers and personnel notes leading into this one point to a game with plenty of details to sort through, but the bigger question remains whether WVU can stabilize its slide in an environment that rarely makes that easy. [Read more 🡒]
WVU Defense Suddenly Faces A Question Fans Were Dreading
West Virginias defense came out of its latest matchup with Oklahoma State under a harsh spotlight after failing to pressure the quarterback and giving up too many explosive plays. Rich Rodriguez did not hide the fact that the Mountaineers had problems on the back end and up front, pointing to issues with containment, coverage, and overall execution as the kind that can unravel a game quickly.
Zac Alleys scheme and how quickly the unit is adjusting to it now loom as the real concern for a team trying to keep building momentum. Rodriguez still sounded confident in the players, which leaves the Mountaineers at an interesting crossroads: the talent is there, but the defense has to show it can fit the system before opponents keep turning the same weaknesses into easy yardage. [Read more 🡒]