West Virginia heads into Saturday’s noon kickoff at Amon G. Carter Stadium as a double-digit underdog against TCU, but the matchup still comes with a pile of numbers that help explain why the game could tilt either way in spurts.
The Mountaineers have had the upper hand recently when they’ve gone to Fort Worth, winning their last two trips in the series. The last home team to win this matchup was TCU in 2020, and that came in the COVID season.
WVU enters at 4-3 overall and 1-3 in the Big 12, while TCU sits at 3-3 and 1-2. The scheduling wrinkle is part of the setup, too: West Virginia is one of 34 teams that will have played on each of the first eight weekends of the season before getting an open date next week.
TCU, meanwhile, has already taken two bye weeks after opening in Week 0 against North Carolina in Ireland. The Horned Frogs were off Sept. 5 and Oct. 10, then returned last week with a 17-6 win at Baylor.
The statistical profile on both sides is crowded with extremes.
WVU quarterback Mike Hawkins ranks No. 1 in the FBS in yards per completion at 18.3, rushing touchdowns with 14 and points scored with 84. The Mountaineers also have the fifth-best rushing attack in the country at 272.4 yards per game, while DJ Epps leads the FBS at 25.27 yards per catch.
West Virginia’s offense has been explosive. The Mountaineers have 50 plays of 20 or more yards, which ranks No. 2 nationally, and they’ve scored 37.6 points per game, good for No. 19 in the FBS.
They’re also converting 49.5 percent of their third-down chances, which puts them No. 18.
But the other side of the ball has been far shakier. WVU is giving up 34.0 points per game, which ranks No. 130 in the FBS.
The defense has allowed 51 plays of 20 or more yards, ranking No. 138, and it is surrendering 310.1 passing yards per game, also No. 138.
The Mountaineers have allowed 173.7 rushing yards per game, which ranks No. 105.
TCU, by comparison, has built its case around defense. The Horned Frogs have given up only eight touchdowns, second-fewest in the FBS, and their 12.2 points allowed per game rank No. 3 nationally.
They’ve also allowed only 14 plays of 20 or more yards, which ranks No. 5, and opponents are converting third downs at a 30.2 percent clip, good for No. 13.
That hasn’t translated into a blazing offense. TCU is averaging 24.0 points per game, which ranks No. 95 in the FBS, and its rushing attack sits at 110.0 yards per game, No.
- The passing game is more productive at 282.3 yards per game, ranking No.
There’s also a quieter note around the Horned Frogs: they’ve won four straight Homecoming games.
And the date itself has leaned toward West Virginia. The Mountaineers own 11 wins in 19 games played on Oct. 24, part of a 4-4 road record on that date. One more number sits in the background from the source: 24 points in the fourth quarter against Cincinnati, which was West Virginia’s biggest fourth-quarter output in 20 years and its most in any quarter against an FBS team since 31 in the second quarter against Baylor in 2018.
In Other News...
West Virginia Still Faces A Huge Roster Question Days Before Opener
West Virginia still has one of its biggest roster questions hanging over the program just days before the opener, even after a court ruling gave forwards Brenen Lorient and Javan Buchanan a temporary path to a fifth year of eligibility. The two are currently allowed to play, and Ross Hodge has said he feels confident about their availability, pointing to the specific circumstances surrounding each player's case as the Mountaineers try to settle into the final stretch of preseason preparation.
The NCAA, though, has already appealed the ruling, leaving the situation unresolved and keeping the final decision on both players in limbo. For a team trying to get its rotation and frontcourt plans in place, the timing is far from ideal, and West Virginia is still waiting for the last word before the season gets underway. [Read more 🡒]
WVU Secondary Suddenly Faces A Bigger TCU Test Than Expected
West Virginias secondary suddenly has a little less margin for error going into the TCU matchup, with cornerback Jason Chambers moving from questionable to doubtful. For a defense that was already bracing for a tough Big 12 test, that kind of late-week change can reshape how the Mountaineers line up on the back end and how much they have to lean on their depth at corner.
TCU is dealing with its own availability issues, but the important pieces on offense still appear set to go. Third-string back Landon Walker is out and reserve safety Ryan Yaites is doubtful, yet lead running back Jeremy Payne and tight end Kari Ashley are expected to play, which keeps the Horned Frogs attack from losing much of its punch. For West Virginia, the concern is less about what TCU is missing and more about whether the Mountaineers can hold up against the players the Horned Frogs can still put on the field. [Read more 🡒]
West Virginia TCU Has All The Signs Of A Wild Shootout
Phil Steeles read on the upcoming West Virginia-TCU matchup points to the kind of game Mountaineer fans have learned to expect when these two line up: plenty of offense, plenty of stress, and not much margin for error. On the In the Gun Podcast, Steele broke down both teams work on offense and defense this season and came away believing the matchup has the ingredients for a high-scoring night, with West Virginia at least having a path to a surprise result.
For bettors, the number to watch is 57.5 at FanDuel Sportsbook, and Steeles lean is the over. Even without a final answer on whether West Virginia can fully cash in on that upset opportunity, the setup alone suggests a game that could turn into a track meet, which is exactly the sort of thing that makes this one worth circling on the Mountaineers calendar. [Read more 🡒]