West Virginia heads to Jack Trice Stadium on Friday looking to crash Iowa State’s Homecoming party in a noon kickoff that puts two 6-6 teams on the same field for the 13th time. TNT, tru TV and HBO Max will carry the game, and the betting line has settled with the Cyclones as 3.5-point favorites.
The series has leaned Iowa State’s way lately. The Cyclones have taken three straight at home against WVU, and in those games they’ve held the Mountaineers scoreless in the third quarter. West Virginia, meanwhile, has lost two straight overall and five of the last six meetings in the series.
The numbers tell a pretty clear story on both sides.
Iowa State is one of only two FBS teams with no returning starters on offense and defense. The other team wasn’t identified in the source material. Even with that reset, the Cyclones have kept their ground game rolling, piling up 100 or more rushing yards in 21 straight games - the longest active streak in the FBS.
Jaylen Raynor has also been a workload machine for Iowa State, with 40 career starts, which ranks second in the FBS. And when the Cyclones get into the red zone, they’ve been automatic: a perfect 100.0 percent this season, with eight touchdowns and four field goals.
There’s another edge that has helped Iowa State stay in control at home. The Cyclones are plus-23 in scoring margin in the third quarter, and they’ve won 14 straight home games when leading entering the fourth quarter. Their home winning streak against WVU has also come with a plus-23 average scoring margin.
West Virginia brings some explosive traits of its own. The Mountaineers average 17.00 yards per completion, which ranks second in the FBS, and they convert 53.2 percent of their third downs, good for 12th nationally.
Cam Cook sits fifth in the FBS in rushing yards per game, while Mike Hawkins is 10th. Hawkins is also responsible for 21.0 points per game, which ranks fifth in the country.
But WVU has also shown some vulnerability. It has allowed 25 plays of 20 or more yards this season, tied to a ranking of 137th in the FBS. The Mountaineers also pass on first down just 13 times, which ranks 137th, and their 4.94 points per red zone possession rank 87th nationally.
Iowa State has been efficient in a different way. It allows opponents to convert just 28.3 percent of third downs, good for 20th in the FBS, and Aiden Flora keeps flipping the field with 143.3 all-purpose yards per game, eighth-best in the nation. Flora also owns four career punt returns of 50 yards or more, the most in the country.
The Cyclones’ special teams and field-position profile has not been as clean, though. Iowa State’s average starting field position margin sits at minus-8.5, which ranks 130th in the FBS. Still, the offense has compensated by scoring 5.67 points per red zone possession, 41st in the country.
One more number to keep in mind: Iowa State has only allowed 3.0 sacks, a mark that ranks 13th among 138 FBS teams. And while WVU’s defense has given up the chunk plays, the Mountaineers do have a path to the upset if they can keep the chains moving and make the most of their own third-down success.
For the trivia crowd, the other FBS team with zero returning starters on offense and defense was not named in the source.
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Phil Steele Still Believes West Virginia Can Rebound Against Iowa State
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Even with West Virginia listed as an underdog, Steele expects the Mountaineers to be in position to either win outright or at least cover the spread. He also weighed in on a slate of other college football games set for the weekend, but his West Virginia takeaway was the one that stood out: a rebound still looks possible. [Read more 🡒]
WVU Defense Suddenly Faces A Question Fans Were Dreading
West Virginias defense came out of its latest matchup with Oklahoma State under a harsh spotlight after failing to pressure the quarterback and giving up too many explosive plays. Rich Rodriguez did not hide the fact that the Mountaineers had problems on the back end and up front, pointing to issues with containment, coverage, and overall execution as the kind that can unravel a game quickly.
Zac Alleys scheme and how quickly the unit is adjusting to it now loom as the real concern for a team trying to keep building momentum. Rodriguez still sounded confident in the players, which leaves the Mountaineers at an interesting crossroads: the talent is there, but the defense has to show it can fit the system before opponents keep turning the same weaknesses into easy yardage. [Read more 🡒]