ESPN’s latest Football Power Index isn’t exactly handing West Virginia a warm welcome into the 2026 season.
The model now pegs the Mountaineers at 5.1-6.9, a step back from the 5.9-6.1 projection it had before. WVU sits at No. 61 in the FPI, down from No. 59, and the numbers paint a pretty clear picture of where the ceiling and floor land right now. ESPN says the FPI is designed to measure team strength and forecast future performance using 10,000 simulations, current results and the remaining schedule.
The playoff and title odds are thin, too. West Virginia has a 58.9-percent shot at reaching six wins, down from 81.1. The Mountaineers are given a 0.1-percent chance to win the Big 12 Conference, down from 1.3, a 0.4-percent chance to make the College Football Playoff, down from 4.0, and a 0.0-percent chance to reach the National Championship Game, down from 0.1.
Some of the individual game projections have already been tested on the field, while others still loom ahead.
WVU opened the season with a 38-27 win over Virginia in Charlotte, a game ESPN gave the Mountaineers just a 15.9-percent chance to win beforehand. Virginia is now No. 44 in the FPI, down from No.
- The schools haven’t played much in recent decades despite being neighbors.
Their last meeting before this one came in a bowl game in 2002, when Virginia won 48-22. Before that, the previous matchup was in 1985.
The series once featured regular meetings, and Virginia still holds a 12-10-1 edge. The Cavaliers had won the last three before WVU’s current run of six straight in the series.
The next two results went the other way. West Virginia fell 41-24 to Oklahoma State on Sept. 26 after entering the game with a 58.5-percent chance to win.
The Cowboys are No. 45 in the FPI, down from No. 43, and now lead the all-time series 10-6. WVU had won the previous meeting in 2024 in Stillwater, when Jahiem White ran for 158 yards and a score, Garrett Greene added 86 rushing yards and a touchdown, and CJ Donaldson chipped in 77 yards and two more scores.
Then came the October 3 trip to Iowa State, where the Mountaineers lost 45-42 despite a pregame win probability of 37.7 percent. The Cyclones remain No. 55 in the FPI.
The series is perfectly even at 6-6, with both teams 3-3 at home. WVU won five of the first six in the matchup, but Iowa State has taken five of the last six.
The teams last met in 2024, when the 11th-ranked Cyclones won 28-16.
There is better news in the middle of the schedule. ESPN gives WVU a 46.5-percent chance against Cincinnati on Oct. 17, up from 39.0.
The Bearcats are No. 56, down from No. 42.
West Virginia has dominated that series, going 18-3-1 in 22 meetings, including four straight wins. That stretch covers the last two Big East matchups and the first two since Cincinnati joined the Big 12.
In 2024, WVU beat the Bearcats 31-24 behind two defensive touchdowns.
The road gets steeper from there. At TCU on Oct. 24, the Mountaineers have a 27.0-percent chance to win, down from 30.3.
The Horned Frogs are No. 48, down from No. 47.
TCU won four of the first six games in the series during the early Big 12 years, including a pair of key Top 25 meetings. WVU then answered by winning five of six before last year’s 23-17 loss in Morgantown.
On Nov. 7, West Virginia travels to Texas Tech with just an 8.9-percent chance, down from 11.5.
The Red Raiders are No. 11, up from No. 13.
Texas Tech leads the series 8-7, though WVU won six of the first eight meetings. The Mountaineers have only one win in the last seven, and the last two have been lopsided in Tech’s favor, with the Red Raiders outscoring WVU 101-15.
The late-season home stretch offers one more swing game against Kansas on Nov. 14.
West Virginia’s win chance there is 46.7 percent, down sharply from 66.8. Kansas is No. 51, up from No.
- WVU owns an 11-3 series edge, with ten wins in the first eleven meetings, but the Jayhawks have taken two of the last three, including a 41-10 blowout last season.
The final listed matchup is against Utah, where WVU’s chances sit at 7.5 percent, down from 8.4. The Utes are No. 12, unchanged.
West Virginia has never beaten Utah, losing twice in bowl games and once in their only Big 12 meeting. The Mountaineers dropped the Liberty Bowl in 1964, then again in 2017, when half the team sat out.
The teams met in the regular season for the first time last year, and Utah rolled 48-14.
In Other News...
West Virginias Cincinnati Weekend Is Turning Into A Program Showcase
West Virginias Oct. 17 home game against Cincinnati is getting a bigger stage, with the Big 12 announcing the matchup will air on TNT and also be simulcast on TruTV and HBO Max. For a program that has spent the fall trying to turn home dates into full-event weekends, it fits neatly with what is already building around the game in Morgantown.
The Mountaineers are layering in a Stripe the Stadium theme, group ticket packages for alumni and the induction of the 36th WVU Sports Hall of Fame class, while the Big 12 Fall Tour is also set to stop in town with a free kickoff concert on Oct. 10. It is the kind of calendar that gives the Cincinnati game more weight than just another conference Saturday, and West Virginia will be hoping the extra attention translates into a packed house and a lively atmosphere. [Read more 🡒]
West Virginia Mourns A Heartbreaking Loss In Its Recruiting Class
A heartbreaking loss struck West Virginias recruiting class on Monday morning when Chris Wilson, a senior at Yorktown High School and a committed defensive line recruit for the Mountaineers, was killed in a shooting. The incident remains under investigation, and authorities have not released additional details.
Yorktown High School principal Stacey Brewer issued a statement expressing condolences to Wilsons family and the school community while also confirming there is no threat to students or schools. For West Virginia, the news goes far beyond football, cutting into the lives of coaches, teammates and a program that had welcomed Wilson as part of its future. [Read more 🡒]
West Virginias Fast Start Is Reviving A Feeling Fans Missed
Five games into the season, West Virginias offense has given fans reason to flash back to one of the programs most beloved stretches. The comparison centers on Mike Hawkins Jr. and Cam Cook alongside Pat White and Steve Slaton from 2006, a season that still sits near the top of the Mountaineers modern memories because of how smoothly the quarterback-runback pairing fit together and how hard it was for defenses to sort out who was doing what.
The numbers are not identical, and the styles are not carbon copies, but the similarities are enough to make the conversation worth having. Hawkins Jr. and Cook have already drawn the kind of attention that comes when a backfield starts to feel layered and dangerous at the same time, with the passing and rushing production inviting side-by-side study rather than simple nostalgia. For West Virginia, the interesting part is not just the flash of a fast start, but whether it can sustain the kind of offensive rhythm that once made this pairing feel inevitable. [Read more 🡒]