West Virginia’s season opener did not move the needle much in the eyes of ESPN’s Football Power Index, and that’s bad news for a team already staring at a rough forecast.
The computers still have the Mountaineers finishing 3-9 overall and 1-8 in Big 12 play, the same projection they carried into the season. Before kickoff, FPI had West Virginia’s only predicted wins coming against Coastal Carolina, UT Martin and Kansas. After one game, that outlook remains unchanged.
What did shift were the odds in a few individual matchups, including a flip in the probabilities for games against Oklahoma State and Kansas.
The next test is Virginia, and FPI gives West Virginia just a 15% shot there. That number stands out, especially if the Mountaineers can bring the same first-half version of themselves that showed up against Coastal Carolina. The second-half struggles in that game came with context, though, as West Virginia was trying to run clock, protect the lead and avoid revealing too much.
Cincinnati is another spot where the numbers and the eye test don’t quite line up. The Bearcats are coming off a comfortable win over Boston College, but there are still question marks around the roster, quarterback included. West Virginia has also had success in this series since the teams began playing each other, and the source of this report does not see that changing, especially with the game in Morgantown.
Texas Tech barely moved at all in the projections, though the line actually ticked up a bit for the Red Raiders. That rise came despite Texas Tech not blowing out Abilene Christian, and it was enough to draw a skeptical reaction. The point remains that West Virginia has not yet shown enough to justify any increase in the difficulty of that matchup.
Kansas is the other game that saw a notable change. The shift was larger than expected after the Jayhawks opened with a rout, though that performance still doesn’t provide much clarity on where they stand.
If Kansas were to lose by multiple scores to Missouri this week, the projection would swing back toward West Virginia. For now, that game looks like one that could keep changing right up until kickoff week.
In Other News...
WVU Sees New Revenue In Two Venues With One Big Catch
WVU is leaning harder into the business side of college athletics, and Wren Bakers latest restructuring puts Don Robinson in charge of a key slice of that effort. Robinson will serve as the liaison to Learfields Mountaineer Sports Properties while also helping lead the push to bring concerts and other events to Hope Coliseum and Milan Puskar Stadium, part of a broader plan to create new revenue streams for the athletics department.
The ambition is there, but so are the hurdles. Hope Coliseum still needs major work, including no air conditioning, and both venues have loading limitations that make it tougher to stage larger productions. WVU wants those issues addressed well enough to host bigger shows by 2028, turning two familiar campus sites into something more than game-day buildings, even if the path to get there is going to take some real upgrades. [Read more 🡒]
Rich Rod Is Trying To Shield WVU From Portal Chaos
West Virginias roster management has become just as important as the on-field work this fall, with Rich Rodriguez and general manager Chuck Lillie leaning hard into one goal before the transfer portal opens again: keep the Mountaineers from getting hit by another wave of turnover. The staff has spent time trying to retain players through multi-year contracts, part of a broader push to create some stability in a sport that keeps making roster building more complicated.
The timing matters because the new eligibility rules have reduced the number of free transfers available, giving programs a chance to be more aggressive about locking players in for their full college careers. West Virginia has not disclosed which players are involved or what those deals look like, but the direction is clear. Rodriguez is trying to get ahead of portal chaos before it starts, and for a program that has seen how quickly a roster can change, that matters just as much as anything happening on Saturdays. [Read more 🡒]
WVU Fans Have A Real Dilemma After Hawkins Sparked Mixed Feelings
The first half against Coastal Carolina gave West Virginia plenty to feel good about, with the Mountaineers jumping out fast and looking like a team ready to put the game away early. The overall vibe around the program changed quickly after the break, though, as the performance loosened enough to leave fans sorting through both the promise and the frustration that came with it.
Michael Hawkins Jr. was a big part of why the night still carried excitement, and his showing only sharpened the debate about what West Virginia might have in him going forward. For a fan base trying to balance momentum with a few too many warning signs, the bigger question now is how much of what they saw can travel into the next stretch of games. [Read more 🡒]