Ross Hodge’s first West Virginia team will get an early read on where it stands, and ESPN’s Basketball Power Index has already laid out how steep - or manageable - the climb looks on each game of the 2026 schedule.
The Mountaineers are trying to get back to the NCAA Tournament for the first time since the 2022-23 season, and the BPI numbers show a slate that opens with a long run of heavily favored games before the schedule tightens fast.
West Virginia is projected to be overwhelming favorites in its first three games: 98.1% against Niagara on Nov. 2, 96.8% against Stetson on Nov. 6 and 95.5% against Mercer on Nov.
- The first major test comes Nov. 17 against Auburn, where West Virginia’s win probability drops to 36.1%.
The nonconference stretch stays mixed from there. The Mountaineers are given a 45% shot against North Carolina on Nov. 27, then come back with strong odds in home games against Mercyhurst on Dec. 1 at 97.8%, Coppin State on Dec. 13 at 99%, Northern Arizona on Dec. 16 at 97.5% and South Carolina State on Dec. 21 at 98.5%.
A few of the other December games carry more intrigue. West Virginia is at 69.8% against Virginia Tech on Dec. 5, 68% against Pitt on Dec. 9 and 71.3% against Wake Forest on Dec. 19.
Conference play is where the picture really starts to shift. West Virginia opens Big 12 action at Kansas on Jan. 2 with a 21.5% chance, then gets 59.7% against Oklahoma State on Jan. 5 and 56.2% at Colorado on Jan.
- The BPI gives the Mountaineers an 82.2% edge at home against Kansas State on Jan. 12 before the odds tighten again with Cincinnati visiting on Jan.
That Cincinnati game stands out in the schedule notes: “The Bearcats are not going to be an easy team to play this year. Jerrod Calhoun knows how to coach offense, and they have some dudes who can absolutely fill it up. I'm just not buying all the hype surrounding them entering the season, and I certainly don't expect them to leave Morgantown with a win.”
West Virginia’s February stretch includes a swing through the league that features 58% at Utah on Jan. 20, 24.2% at BYU on Jan.
23, 76.9% against Arizona State on Jan. 27 and 33.3% against Arizona on Jan. 30.
The BPI then shows 59.9% at UCF on Feb. 3 before the Knights return to Morgantown on Feb. 16, where West Virginia is projected at 81.3%.
UCF is also singled out in the schedule breakdown: “The Knights may not be quite as good as their NCAA Tournament team a year ago, but they have the makings of a squad that will be on the bubble all year long. Not that Orlando is an extremely tough place to play, but anything away from Hope Coliseum is going to be a challenge, especially when you play a team that will need as many Q1/Q2 wins as possible.”
The toughest road spots keep coming after that. West Virginia is at 27.1% against Iowa State on Feb.
6, 15.2% at Texas Tech on Feb. 13, 29.4% at Baylor on Feb.
20, 25.4% at Cincinnati on Feb. 24 and 11.4% at Iowa State again on Mar. 6.
The final home game in the projection list is against Houston on Feb. 27, where the Mountaineers sit at 38%, and the regular season closes against TCU on Mar. 3 with a 63.1% chance at home.
In Other News...
West Virginias Rotation Is Taking Shape But A Key Battle Isnt Over
West Virginias preseason exhibitions have given Ross Hodge a clearer look at how his first Mountaineers rotation might settle in, and the early signs suggest a compact core is already separating itself from the pack. Hodge has leaned on a group he trusts, using the exhibitions to sort through a roster that looks deeper and more versatile than the average preseason group, while also getting a better read on which players can help in meaningful minutes once the games start counting.
Still, the picture is not fully set, because there are players on the edge of the rotation who have at least made the decision more complicated. The Mountaineers have enough pieces to mix and match, and that kind of flexibility can be a strength, but it also means the final pecking order is still being fought over behind the scenes. For a team trying to build identity early, the most interesting question may be less about who starts and more about who earns a lasting role once the roster trims down to its true eight or nine. [Read more 🡒]
Ross Hodge Sent An Early Message To West Virginias Young Frontcourt
The first real teaching moment of the Ross Hodge era arrived quickly for West Virginias young frontcourt. In an exhibition against Wheeling, freshman Aliou Dioum was whistled for a technical foul after hanging on the rim following a dunk, and Hodge made sure the message was delivered immediately on the floor. It was the kind of correction that can get lost in a preseason tuneup, but for a staff trying to establish standards early, it clearly mattered.
Dioum stayed in the game and still made his presence felt, finishing with seven points, two rebounds and two blocks in seven minutes. Even in a non-competitive setting, Hodge treated the sequence as a reminder that habits count, especially for a group of young bigs learning how to operate within the details. For West Virginia, it was a small moment with a larger purpose, the sort of baseline expectation that can define how the frontcourt develops from here. [Read more 🡒]
WVUs Defensive Ceiling Looks Shakier Than Fans Wanted To Admit
West Virginias defensive profile has become harder to gloss over as the Big 12 schedule has worn on. A look at the Pro Football Focus grades and snap counts shows a unit with only a few players grading above 70, which is a pretty thin margin for error when the games get tighter and the competition gets more explosive. The struggles in that four-game stretch in conference play exposed how quickly things can slip when the back end is under pressure.
Geimere Latimer has been one of the steadier pieces, piling up a heavy snap load and holding up well overall. But the broader picture still points to a defense that has had trouble finding enough reliable play at safety, and that has left the passing game vulnerable in ways West Virginia could not afford. The question now is not whether the Mountaineers have some individual pieces to build around, but whether the ceiling of the unit is lower than many hoped heading into the season. [Read more 🡒]