ESPN’s latest Football Power Index is feeling better about West Virginia’s 2026 season.
The model now has the Mountaineers finishing 7.0-5.0, a noticeable jump from the earlier 5.5-6.5 projection. That shift shows up across the board: WVU’s chance to reach six wins is up to 81.1 percent from 47.0, while its odds of taking the Big 12 are 1.3 percent, up from 0.5.
ESPN also gives the Mountaineers a 4.0-percent shot at making the College Football Playoff and a 0.1-percent chance of reaching the National Championship Game. WVU is sitting at No. 49 in the FPI, up from No.
ESPN describes the FPI as a team-strength measure designed to predict how a team will perform going forward, using 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season along with results to date and the remaining schedule.
One of the biggest boosts in the model comes in the opener listed on the slate: a Sept. 19 matchup with Virginia in Charlotte. ESPN’s projection gave WVU a 15.9 percent chance before the game, and the Mountaineers won it 38-27.
Virginia now checks in at No. 34 in the FPI, down from 25. The schools haven’t played since a bowl game in 2002, when the Cavaliers won 48-22, and their previous meeting before that came in 1985.
Virginia leads the series 12-10-1 and has won the last three, while WVU had won the six before that stretch.
The numbers get more favorable for West Virginia in its home game against Oklahoma State on Sept. 26, where the Mountaineers are given a 59.7 percent chance to win, up from 53.0. The Cowboys are at No. 50 in the FPI, up from 54.
The teams have met 16 times, with Oklahoma State holding a 10-6 edge. WVU won the last matchup in 2024 in Stillwater, getting big days from Jahiem White, Garrett Greene and CJ Donaldson.
On Oct. 3 at Iowa State, the Mountaineers are at 44.8 percent, a small rise from 43.1. The Cyclones are ranked No. 55, up from 64.
The series is perfectly split at 6-6, with each team 3-3 at home. WVU won five of the first six meetings, but Iowa State has taken five of the last six.
The most recent game came in 2024, when the 11th-ranked Cyclones beat WVU 28-16.
The home date with Cincinnati on Oct. 17 looks more promising in the model than it did before, with WVU now at 51.2 percent after being listed at 30.6. Cincinnati is No. 46 in the FPI, down from 34.
West Virginia has dominated the series, going 18-3-1 in 22 meetings and winning the last four. The last time the teams played, in 2024, WVU used two defensive touchdowns to pull out a 31-24 win.
The next road trip, to TCU on Oct. 24, comes with a 35.2 percent win chance for the Mountaineers, up from 26.6. TCU remains at No.
- The Horned Frogs won four of the first six meetings in the early Big 12 years, including a pair of important ranked matchups, before WVU answered by winning five of six.
TCU got the most recent laugh, though, taking a 23-17 game in Morgantown last year.
West Virginia’s toughest road assignment in the model is Nov. 7 at Texas Tech, where the Mountaineers are given a 17.4 percent chance, up from 10.9. The Red Raiders are No. 17, down from 16.
Texas Tech leads the series 8-7, but WVU won six of the first eight. Since then, the Red Raiders have controlled things, winning six of the last seven.
The last two meetings haven’t been close, with Texas Tech outscoring WVU 101-15.
The final game listed in the projection, a Nov. 14 home matchup with Kansas, gives the Mountaineers their best remaining odds at 73.2 percent, up from 59.0. Kansas is No. 67, down from 62.
WVU leads the series 11-3, and the early years were especially one-sided, with the Mountaineers winning 10 of the first 11. Kansas has taken two of the last three, including a 41-10 win last season.
In Other News...
West Virginias 3-0 Start Just Raised The Stakes Against Oklahoma State
West Virginias perfect start kept rolling with a win over Virginia, and the payoff goes beyond another mark in the loss column. At 3-0, the Mountaineers have put themselves in a far better place for bowl eligibility, and the early-season momentum has already started to shift the conversation around where this team might wind up in December.
Various outlets have already started slotting West Virginia into different bowl projections, and the quality of those possible destinations has improved since the Virginia win. The next test against Oklahoma State now feels especially important, because another strong result would only sharpen the Mountaineers standing and make the rest of their season look a lot different than it did a few weeks ago. [Read more 🡒]
WVU Snap Counts Reveal Early Trust Battles Fans Should Watch
West Virginias first game against a Power Four opponent offered an early look at how the coaching staff is sorting out its trust tree, and the snap counts made the picture a little clearer. On offense, the wide receiver rotation showed which players were leaned on most, while the interior line work suggested the staff is still testing how it wants to manage the front. On defense, the distribution among defensive backs also pointed to a group that is being handled with some care as the season gets into its tougher stretch.
For fans, the bigger takeaway is less about the numbers themselves and more about what they can signal next. Coaching staffs tend to settle into patterns quickly, especially after a matchup like this, and those early usage splits can tell you who is earning steady work and who may be headed for a bigger role as the lineup evolves. If the rotations shift in the coming weeks, this opener may end up looking like the first real clue to how West Virginia wants to build around its most trusted pieces. [Read more 🡒]
WVU's First Road Test Just Got More Interesting Against Iowa State
West Virginias first road test of the season now has a little more clarity, with the Big 12 setting the Mountaineers game at Iowa State for noon Eastern and placing it on TNT, TruTV and HBO Max. Its the kind of update that turns a circled date on the calendar into a real checkpoint for a team still trying to settle into the rhythm of the year, especially with a league trip that can tell you plenty about where a roster stands.
Iowa State brings its own intrigue into the matchup under new coach Jimmy Rogers, as the Cyclones work through a rebuild while still carrying the usual Big 12 familiarity on the schedule. The series history adds another layer, because these games have tended to offer West Virginia a useful measuring stick, and this one lands in the middle of a stretch that should help define both teams early direction. [Read more 🡒]