It’s mid-February, and while Valentine’s Day might be stealing headlines, college basketball fans know what season it really is: bubble season. The time of year when every win matters, every loss is magnified, and teams like West Virginia are walking the tightrope between dancing in March or watching from home.
With seven games left on the schedule, West Virginia is squarely in the thick of the NCAA Tournament conversation - but not quite where they want to be. According to the latest seed list projections, the Mountaineers sit as the tenth team out of the field. That puts them behind 13 other programs jostling for those final few spots, including the likes of Texas, USC, San Diego State, and Missouri - the current “Last Four In” - as well as bubble hopefuls like TCU, Virginia Tech, and Seton Hall.
So where does West Virginia actually stack up in this crowded bubble picture? Let’s break it down.
The Good: A Clean Resume Where It Counts
If you’re looking at the basic resume metrics - specifically Quad 1 wins and avoiding bad losses - West Virginia actually shines. The Mountaineers have picked up three Quad 1 victories and, crucially, have zero losses in Quad 3 or Quad 4 games.
That’s rare air among bubble teams. Only Missouri (3 Q1 wins, 0 bad losses) and California (4 Q1 wins, 0 bad losses) can say the same.
When you rank these 14 bubble teams based on those two resume pillars - giving the most points to the team with the most Q1 wins and the fewest bad losses - West Virginia ends up tied for the top spot with USC. On paper, that’s a strong case to be much closer to the tournament cutline than they currently are.
But here’s where things get tricky.
The Bad: Advanced Metrics Don’t Like the Mountaineers
While the NET rankings and resume metrics paint a promising picture, the advanced analytics tell a different story - and unfortunately for West Virginia, the selection committee has shown increasing reliance on those deeper metrics in recent years.
Two key models often cited are Bart Torvik’s T-Rank and the Wins Above Bubble (WAB) metric. In those, West Virginia doesn’t fare well.
They rank 57th in Torvik and 61st in WAB - putting them 10th and 13th, respectively, among the 14 bubble teams in this group. Combine those rankings, and WVU drops to 13th overall, ahead of only California.
That’s a steep fall when you’re trying to make a case for inclusion, and it highlights the disconnect between what the Mountaineers have accomplished and how the underlying numbers view their performance.
The Ugly: Margin Matters
Beyond the stats, there’s the eye test - and the optics haven’t always been great for WVU. Yes, they pulled off a marquee upset over Kansas.
But in their other four games against Top 25 opponents, they didn’t just lose - they were overwhelmed. Those four losses came by a combined 92 points, an average margin of 23 per game.
That includes a blowout against Texas Tech where a late push made the final score look more respectable than the game actually was.
That kind of lopsided record against top-tier teams doesn’t go unnoticed by the committee. It raises questions about how WVU would fare if they actually made the tournament - and whether they can compete with the caliber of teams they’d face in March.
The Opportunity: It’s Not Over Yet
Here’s the silver lining: the Mountaineers still have time - and more importantly, opportunities - to make their case. Of their final seven regular-season games, four are against Quad 1 opponents, and two more fall into Quad 2 territory. That’s six chances to boost the resume in a meaningful way.
If West Virginia can pick up two or three more high-quality wins down the stretch and avoid any slip-ups, they’ll be right back in the thick of the conversation. The path isn’t easy, but it’s there.
In bubble season, that’s all you can ask for.