ESPN’s latest Football Power Index doesn’t paint a rosy picture for West Virginia’s 2026 season.
The updated model has the Mountaineers pegged for a 4.4-7.6 finish, a drop from the earlier 5.1-6.9 projection. WVU now sits at No. 72 in the FPI, down from No. 61, and the numbers around the program have slid across the board. ESPN gives West Virginia a 14.6-percent shot at reaching six wins, down from 58.9, while its odds of winning the Big 12, reaching the College Football Playoff, or making the National Championship Game all sit at 0.0 percent.
ESPN describes the Football Power Index as a measure of team strength designed to predict future performance, with results driven by 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season, current results and the remaining schedule. The ratings and projections update daily.
The season snapshot includes a few clear pivot points. West Virginia’s September 19 matchup against Virginia in Charlotte is listed as a 38-27 win, with the Cavaliers carrying a 15.9-percent pregame chance.
Virginia is ranked No. 48 in the FPI, down from No. 44.
The two programs haven’t met since a bowl game in 2002, when Virginia won 48-22, and before that their most recent meeting came in 1985. The series was once a regular one, with Virginia holding a 12-10-1 edge.
UVA has won the last three meetings, while WVU took the six before that.
A week later, the Mountaineers are projected to lose at home to Oklahoma State, 41-24, in a game where West Virginia had a 58.5-percent chance before kickoff. The Cowboys are No. 42 in the FPI, up from No.
- The teams have met 16 times, with Oklahoma State leading the series 10-6.
WVU beat the Cowboys in Stillwater in 2024 behind big rushing days from Jahiem White, Garrett Greene and CJ Donaldson.
October brings another close call at Iowa State, where ESPN slots WVU into a 45-42 loss with pregame odds of 37.7 percent. The Cyclones are No. 55, unchanged.
West Virginia and Iowa State have split 12 meetings, six apiece, and each has gone 3-3 at home in the series. WVU won five of the first six, while Iowa State has taken five of the last six.
They last played in 2024, when the 11th-ranked Cyclones won 28-16.
The Mountaineers’ October 17 home game against Cincinnati comes with a 40.6-percent chance of winning, down from 46.5. Cincinnati is No. 56, the same spot as before.
WVU has controlled the series, going 18-3-1 in 22 meetings, and has won four straight. The last time these teams met, in 2024, West Virginia used two defensive touchdowns to pull out a 31-24 win.
Things get tougher fast from there. At TCU on October 24, West Virginia’s win probability is 22.5 percent, down from 27.0, while the Horned Frogs sit at No. 47, up from No.
- TCU won four of the first six in the series, including a pair of high-profile games when both teams were ranked in the Top 25.
WVU answered by winning five of six, but last year’s 23-17 loss in Morgantown stung.
The harshest number on the board comes for the November 7 trip to Texas Tech. WVU is given just a 6.9-percent chance, down from 8.9, against a Red Raiders team ranked No.
- Texas Tech leads the all-time series 8-7, but West Virginia won six of the first eight.
Since then, though, the Mountaineers have won only once in seven tries, and the last two meetings have been lopsided in the Red Raiders’ favor, with Texas Tech outscoring WVU 101-15.
West Virginia closes the stretch at home against Kansas on November 14, where the model gives the Mountaineers a 42.0-percent chance of winning, down from 46.7. The Jayhawks are No. 52, down from No.
- WVU leads the series 11-3 and won 10 of the first 11 meetings, but Kansas has taken two of the last three, including a 41-10 win last season.
In Other News...
WVUs Offense Did Enough But One Problem Is Getting Hard To Ignore
West Virginia moved the ball well enough against Arizona to pile up more than 500 yards of offense, yet still walked away with a 52-31 loss in a game that exposed how little margin there is when the other side keeps answering. It was only the fourth time in program history the Mountaineers lost despite reaching that yardage mark, a reminder that big numbers on one side of the ball can still get swallowed up by breakdowns elsewhere.
The Pro Football Focus grades from the game pointed straight at the problem areas, with the defensive line and cornerback play drawing especially rough reviews. There were also some shaky showings among the wide receivers, which only added to a night when West Virginias offense did enough to stay in it but the defense never found a way to slow Arizona down. [Read more 🡒]
Rich Rodriguez Sounds Off As WVUs Biggest Problem Keeps Growing
West Virginias season has reached a familiar and frustrating point in Big 12 play, with the offense doing enough to keep games competitive while the defense keeps surrendering too many big plays and too much yardage. The imbalance has left Rich Rodriguez with a team that can move the ball but has not been able to put together the kind of complete performance needed to break through in league play.
Rodriguez has made clear his frustration with how little progress the defense has shown, even as the staff continues to work at fixing it. For a team still searching for its first Big 12 win, the issue has gone from a weekly concern to the defining problem of the season, and there is no easy answer until the Mountaineers start getting more stops. [Read more 🡒]
WVU Gets Early Look At A Tricky Trip To TCU
West Virginia already has a clear picture of what awaits in Fort Worth later this month, with the Big 12 setting the Mountaineers Week 8 matchup at TCU for a 12 p.m. ET kickoff on Oct. 24 and putting the game on television. It is an early start for a road test that has often carried some weight in the Big 12 pecking order, and it gives WVU a chance to start thinking ahead to a place where it has been able to find some success before.
TCU comes into Week 7 at 2-3, which makes the trip a little harder to pin down than the records might suggest. The Horned Frogs have been solid on defense but have had trouble getting enough going on offense, while West Virginia has the edge in the all-time series at 8-6 and has won six of the last nine meetings, including several encouraging results in Fort Worth. [Read more 🡒]