West Virginia has three chances left to lock up bowl eligibility, and this Saturday looks like the cleanest path. With two ranked teams waiting later on, the Mountaineers know this is the one they can’t afford to let slip.
Phil Steele thinks they get it done.
On this morning’s episode of the In the Gun Podcast, Steele broke down the matchup with Kansas and landed on West Virginia -3. His case started with a simple point: the Jayhawks are better than their record suggests.
He pointed to the Arizona State game in London, where Kansas held a 414-228 yard edge and a 22-13 advantage in first downs but still lost. He also referenced the Utah game, saying, “I had Utah minus the points; I feel very fortunate it made Scott Van Pelt’s Bad Beats that week, very fortunate to get that one- but they have been better.”
Steele then dug into the numbers that shape his view of Kansas. He noted that the Jayhawks outgained Long Island by 467 yards and Middle Tennessee by 570 yards, but said those games heavily influenced their season-long yardage profile.
In Big 12 play, he said Kansas is only +10 yards per game, though they are +98 on the year. He also highlighted a road problem, saying Kansas gives up 231 rushing yards per game away from home and 5.5 yards per carry.
That sets up a matchup Steele likes for West Virginia. “Who they taking on this week?
Oh, Michael Hawkins and Cam Cook… holy cow, that is an incredible combination they got there. I love the way West Virginia played last week against Texas Tech.
I thought they played a tremendous game. I like the fact that they came out of that TCU game on the road with the win.”
He also pointed to Kansas’ struggles in two other games, both of which reinforced his confidence in the Mountaineers. Steele said Kansas was outgained by 214 yards against Missouri after a 14-14 halftime tie, and then outgained by 249 yards in the loss to Kansas State. In both cases, he said the Jayhawks were beaten at the line of scrimmage.
From there, Steele circled back to West Virginia’s defense and the urgency of the moment. “So if you look at those two games, compare it to West Virginia, and you know what?
If that third quarter West Virginia defense shows up…I mean, they had four possessions for Texas Tech last week and one first down in the second half in the first four drives. I think this is a West Virginia team that needs this win.
They got Houston and Utah on deck; they’ll be underdogs in most likely. You need this win to get to six.
I like West Virginia -3 as the play this week.”
Kansas has also had trouble away from Lawrence. The Jayhawks are 0-4 on the road, with three of those games coming in true road settings, and they have been outscored 122-81 in those contests.
There’s another angle that favors West Virginia, too. Kansas has allowed the most rushing yards to a quarterback of any defense in the Big 12, which matters with Mike Hawkins Jr. only 76 yards shy of 1,000 for the season.
In Other News...
Mike Hawkins Jr. Is Rewriting WVU Expectations At The Worst Time
Mike Hawkins Jr. has spent this season giving West Virginia a different kind of quarterback conversation, one built on production both through the air and on the ground. He is on the doorstep of becoming the first WVU quarterback to throw for 2,000 yards and rush for 1,000 in the same season, and he recently added another line to the record book by breaking the programs single-season rushing touchdown mark.
For a program trying to build around him, the timing makes the whole situation feel even more delicate. West Virginia is working to re-sign Hawkins, but no deal is imminent, even as former Mountaineers continue to praise what he has done and what he could still become. The longer this stretches out, the more his breakout season starts to look like both a breakthrough and a decision point for the program. [Read more 🡒]
Jaden Bray Just Earned A Rare WVU Honor Off The Field
West Virginia University used halftime of the WVU-Kansas game to spotlight Jaden Bray for work that has nothing to do with catches or yards. The graduate student and wide receiver was named a Mountaineer of Distinction, an honor that recognizes academic achievement and service to the university, and he became the first WVU football student-athlete to receive it.
Brays recognition fits a broader profile that has made him stand out around the program. Along with his community service, he has collected multiple academic and leadership awards, giving WVU another example of a player whose impact extends well beyond the field. The timing of the honor, in front of a home crowd, only underscored how rare the distinction is for a football player in Morgantown. [Read more 🡒]
WVU Fans Saw One Offensive Problem Get Exposed Against Kansas
Kansas controlled the first half at Milan Puskar Stadium, and the biggest concern for West Virginia was easy to spot. The Mountaineers defense had a few moments, including an interception from freshman ChaMarryus Bomar, but the offense never found a rhythm and kept putting the unit back in tough spots as the Jayhawks kept stacking touchdowns.
For West Virginia, the problem was less about one bad series than a sustained inability to stay on the field and answer Kansas surge. The Mountaineers managed only one touchdown before halftime, and by the break the game had already tilted hard enough to leave the home crowd watching a lopsided scoreboard and wondering where the offense goes from here. [Read more 🡒]