Bill Connelly has unveiled his initial SP+ projections for the 2026 college football season, and there's plenty to unpack for fans eager to see how their teams stack up. The SP+ formula, a brainchild of Connelly, is a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency. It's designed to predict the most sustainable aspects of the game, rather than simply ranking teams by their current résumés.
The formula dives deep, considering four main factors: returning production, recent history, recent recruiting, and coaching changes. It's a comprehensive approach that gives us a glimpse into which teams might rise or fall as the season progresses.
For West Virginia fans, the news isn't exactly what they'd hoped for. The Mountaineers find themselves ranked 66th out of the 138 FBS teams.
Breaking it down further, West Virginia is 62nd in offense, 66th in defense, and 63rd in special teams. These numbers place them at the bottom of the Big 12 Conference, just behind Iowa State (64) and Colorado (65).
Here's how the rest of the Big 12 shapes up:
- Texas Tech is leading the charge at 7th, showing promise for a strong season.
- BYU follows at 18th, suggesting they could be a formidable force.
- Utah sits at 25th, poised to make some noise.
- Kansas State and Arizona are neck and neck at 29th and 30th respectively.
- TCU, Houston, and Oklahoma State round out the mid-tier with rankings of 34, 36, and 38.
- Arizona State, Cincinnati, and Baylor are in the mix with rankings from 42 to 51.
- Kansas and UCF are further down the list at 57 and 60.
- Finally, Iowa State and Colorado edge out West Virginia at 64 and 65.
For Rich Rodriguez and his staff, it's a challenging position to be in, but there's always room for surprises in college football. With the right adjustments and a bit of luck, the Mountaineers could defy these early projections. As the season unfolds, fans will be watching closely to see if the SP+ rankings hold true or if West Virginia can climb the ladder in the Big 12.