West Virginia heads to Ames on Saturday for a 12:00 p.m. kickoff with Iowa State, and the numbers say this one should be tight. The Cyclones are favored by about 3 points, depending on the sportsbook, while ESPN’s analytics give the Mountaineers a 37.7% chance to win.
Iowa State enters the week at 2-2, and the record tells only part of the story. The Cyclones have beaten Bowling Green and Southeast Missouri State, and their two losses came against Iowa and Utah. Both of those defeats were close enough to suggest this is still a solid team, even if it has not quite found its footing yet.
The man in charge is first-year head coach Jimmy Rogers, a defensive-minded coach with stops at Washington State and South Dakota State. Rogers’ résumé already includes a lot of winning.
In 2023, his first season as a head coach, he led South Dakota State to a 15-0 record and an FCS national championship. The Jackrabbits followed that with a 12-3 season and a semifinal run in 2024.
Rogers then went to Washington State, where he finished 6-6 last year before taking over at Iowa State.
Offensively, the Cyclones have leaned on Arkansas State transfer quarterback Jaylen Raynor, though his season has been uneven. He has completed 54% of his passes for 639 yards, with 5 touchdowns and 3 interceptions, and this is a run-first group that hasn’t asked him to carry everything.
His favorite target has been 5-foot-9 slot receiver Omari Hayes, who leads the team in targets, catches and yards. Hayes is the kind of receiver who can move the chains and show up on third down. On the outside, Iowa State also has 6-foot-5 X receiver Dominic Overby, who was targeted 7 times against Utah and came down with a touchdown.
Even so, the biggest threat may be in the backfield. Running back Aiden Flora, now in his third year with the Cyclones, is putting together a breakout season.
He’s averaging 7.6 yards per carry, has scored 3 rushing touchdowns and has piled up more than 400 scrimmage yards. If Iowa State finds its rhythm on offense, Flora is likely to be at the center of it.
The overall production is solid, with Iowa State averaging more than 30 points per game. But the split against stronger competition is telling: just 15 points per game against power conference opponents, along with 164.8 passing yards per game overall. That puts a lot on the run game, and if West Virginia can slow that down, the Cyclones may have trouble consistently beating the Mountaineers through the air, even against a vulnerable WVU secondary.
Defensively, Iowa State is the stronger side of the ball. The Cyclones are giving up only 16 points per game and have shown they can make stops when it matters.
They run a multiple defense with a 4-3 base, and linebacker Sullivan Schlimgen is the anchor in the middle. He’s been everywhere, posting 33 total tackles, 20 solo stops, 1 sack and 2 passes broken up.
His 87.8 ProFootballFocus grade against the run backs up what the production shows.
My X-factor is safety Duhron Goodman, who I think is fantastic and I love his game. He’s played 164 snaps this season, but has only been targeted 3 times and allowed just 1 catch, and has 18 total tackles without one missed as well.
The one soft spot on this defense is the pass rush. Iowa State does not have a true standout edge threat, and the Cyclones are getting to the quarterback just 1.75 times per game. Even with that limitation, this is a disciplined, reliable unit, and Rogers should have this group prepared.
Prediction: Iowa State 27, West Virginia 20.
In Other News...
WVUs Tennessee Game Carries A Charlotte Edge Fans Know Well
West Virginias 2028 trip to Charlotte just moved up a week, with the Mountaineers and Tennessee now set to meet on Aug. 26 as part of the Dukes Mayo Classic. The change from the original Sept. 2 date follows the broader shift in the college football calendar beginning next season, and it keeps one of the more notable neutral-site matchups on the books at a venue that has become familiar territory for the program.
Charlotte carries a bit of extra meaning for West Virginia, too, and athletic director Wren Baker pointed to the citys value as a neutral site for the Mountaineers. For fans, it is the kind of schedule tweak that does not change the opponent or the stage, but does sharpen the anticipation around a game already carrying plenty of early-season intrigue. [Read more 🡒]
Iowa State Faces A Bigger Problem Than Just Bouncing Back
West Virginia and Iowa State both enter Saturday in Ames carrying the sting of recent home losses, which gives this matchup a little more edge than a typical Big 12 meeting. Rich Rodriguez has already had to sort through what went wrong for the Mountaineers, while Jimmy Rogers is doing the same on the other sideline, with both coaches acknowledging the challenges that come with getting a team reset in a hurry.
The ground game could end up shaping the tone, with Cam Cook giving West Virginia a dangerous option and Aiden Flora bringing the same kind of punch for the Cyclones. If Iowa State is going to put its recent disappointment behind it, it will have to do so against a West Virginia group that knows it can make life difficult in a hurry, and that makes the response in Ames feel like more than just a routine bounce-back spot. [Read more 🡒]
Zac Alley Sees One Urgent Fix For WVUs Defensive Collapse
West Virginias defensive problems were front and center after the loss to Oklahoma State, and Zac Alley did not try to dress them up. The defensive coordinator said the unit has work to do in both preparation and execution, a blunt assessment for a group that has spent too much time chasing plays instead of setting the tone. His message pointed less to one bad quarter than to a larger issue with how the defense is being put in position to succeed.
Alley said the fix starts with cleaner technique, a simpler scheme and more rotation so players can keep their legs under them as the season moves forward. He also touched on individual development, noting that some guys are still being evaluated on readiness for the next stretch of games. For West Virginia, the challenge now is turning that self-scouting into something tangible before the defensive slide becomes a bigger problem. [Read more 🡒]