The Big 12 picture is starting to sharpen, and Week 4 left behind a few hot takes that suddenly don’t feel all that hot.
Start with Oklahoma State. After a rough Week 1, the Cowboys have settled in as one of the most explosive offenses in the country, and they backed that up with a 41-24 road win at West Virginia.
That’s not a soft landing spot, either. Caleb Hawkins ran for 180 yards and a touchdown, Drew Mestemaker - the author’s pick to lead the league in passing yards - threw for 389 yards and three scores, and Wyatt Young tore up the Mountaineers’ secondary with eight catches for 192 yards and a touchdown.
When all of that is happening in the same game, it’s fair to say Oklahoma State’s offensive ceiling is as high as anybody’s.
Kansas State, meanwhile, took its first road trip of the season and came home with a loss after building a 10-0 lead early in the second quarter at Cincinnati. The Wildcats had looked dominant in all three phases through the first three weeks, but now the question is whether that was real or just a product of lighter competition.
It’s too early to bury Kansas State, but opening conference play with a loss is not the start it wanted. And there’s another layer here: Cincinnati might be better than plenty of people thought.
The Bearcats are 4-0, and after falling behind early, they answered back in a big way. They may not be a Big 12 title team, but they’re clearly more dangerous than expected.
Colorado is heading in the opposite direction. The Buffaloes were beaten soundly at Northwestern, then dropped to 0-1 in league play with a 23-13 loss at Baylor.
Now the schedule gets brutal. Colorado is set for three straight games against ranked opponents: No.
12 Texas Tech at home, then No. 13 Utah in Boulder, and then a trip to Stillwater to face the surging Cowboys.
Looking at the rest of the schedule, Colorado may only be favored once more, at home against UCF on November 28 - and even that is no sure thing. If the Buffaloes end up with three wins, the source raises the question of whether Coach Prime should be on the hot seat, and says he should be.
With Week 5 up next, West Virginia and Iowa State looks like a game worth circling. Both teams took a step back last week - West Virginia got punked at home by Oklahoma State, while Iowa State was handled by Utah in Ames - and this one feels like it could swing either way. Iowa State is a small early favorite, but West Virginia may have the better roster, which is exactly why this matchup has the feel of a one-score game.
The Big 12’s top two teams in the rankings are also taking the road this weekend. No.
10 BYU goes to TCU, while No. 12 Texas Tech heads to Colorado.
Early lines have BYU as about a touchdown favorite and Texas Tech as roughly a two-touchdown favorite. Both teams are being treated like Big 12 Championship Game contenders, but Utah, Oklahoma State and Cincinnati would all like a say in that conversation.
Road games in this league have a way of getting strange, and this weekend should tell us a little more about both teams.
Then there’s Cincinnati again, this time in Tucson for Big 12 After Dark against Arizona. The Bearcats are 4-0 after knocking off Kansas State, and Arizona comes in off a road win at Washington State.
It’s not a game that will settle the conference race, but it matters for both teams as the postseason picture starts to form. Arizona is an early seven-point favorite, but if Cincinnati wins again, the Bearcats will be 5-0 and starting to look like legitimate Big 12 contenders.
Arizona, naturally, will try to make sure that doesn’t happen.
October is here, and the Big 12 is just getting warmed up. Things are about to get really fun in this conference.
In Other News...
West Virginia Faces A Bigger Defensive Concern Than One Bad Loss
West Virginias loss to Oklahoma State was not the kind you can pin on one bad quarter or one lopsided stat sheet. The Mountaineers actually had some encouraging numbers on defense and put up a strong rushing total, but the film still told a more troubling story. The new defensive scheme was supposed to help unsettle an opponent that likes to push the ball, yet Oklahoma State found too many ways to hit big plays and keep the pressure on.
What made the defeat sting was how often West Virginia let those chances slip through its hands. Missed tackles piled up, explosive plays came too easily, and the staff admitted the game plan simply did not work as intended. For a team trying to build momentum, the bigger concern is not just the result itself, but whether the defensive issues exposed in this one are tied to a deeper problem than a single rough afternoon. [Read more 🡒]
WVU Fans Get A Coal Rush Twist They Werent Expecting
West Virginias October 10 matchup with Arizona now has a start time and a national TV home, and it comes with an early kickoff that should give Mountaineer fans plenty of time to settle in. The Big 12 announced the game will kick at 12 p.m. ET in Morgantown and air on TNT, TruTV and HBO Max, adding another layer of visibility to a nonconference meeting that already carries some curiosity.
Arizona arrives with a little momentum after improving to 3-1 with a win over Washington State, while West Virginia will be trying to build on the familiarity of a series that has been played only once before. The Mountaineers won that 2021 meeting 31-26, and this years game lands in the middle of a busy stretch for the Wildcats, who will turn around and face Cincinnati in a late kickoff the following week. [Read more 🡒]
Rich Rod's Offense Is Giving West Virginia Fans A Real Concern
Rich Rodriguezs latest West Virginia offense is already drawing attention because it looks different from the ones fans remember from his earlier coaching stops. Through four games, the Mountaineers are throwing on just 22% of their offensive snaps, a notably lower rate than Rodriguez has typically used over the course of his career. For a coach long associated with pace and spread principles, that tilt toward the run has become one of the early-season talking points around the program.
The reasons are not hard to see, at least in broad terms. Pass protection has been an issue, and the receiver play has also factored into the equation, making it easier to understand why the offense has leaned so heavily on the ground game. Still, the bigger question hovering over West Virginia is whether a more balanced approach would make the attack harder to defend and more effective overall, even if the current numbers suggest Rodriguez is still searching for the right mix. [Read more 🡒]