A messy Week 6 across college football sent ESPN’s FPI numbers spinning, and a few teams took some hard hits while others made real noise. The formula has already produced some odd-looking results - Notre Dame jumping past Ohio State to No. 1, with two-loss LSU and Oregon still hanging around the top 10 - but the latest round of games gave the computers plenty more to chew on.
Louisville delivered one of the biggest jolts of the week with its 44-20 win over Florida State. That result pushed the Cardinals sharply upward in the FPI and offered another hint that the ACC still has work to do.
Louisville is 3-3, sits third in the league in FPI, and yet is given only a 1.8% chance to make the College Football Playoff. Miami is the only ACC team inside the top 21 of the FPI ranking.
Purdue also made a major move after pounding Minnesota 41-13. The Boilermakers picked up one of Week 6’s biggest FPI climbs, though the path ahead still looks steep. FPI gives Purdue just a 35.5% chance to get to six wins, although there are now six Big Ten teams with worse odds - including Minnesota, the team Purdue just beat down.
South Carolina found a way to steady itself in a season that has been hanging by a thread. Shane Beamer’s group went on the road and beat Florida 38-19, a result that gave the Gamecocks a big lift in FPI and moved them to a mild favorite to reach six wins and bowl eligibility, at 57.7%. With frustration around Beamer still very much part of the conversation, every positive turn matters.
Florida State’s problems deepened after Mike Norvell’s team led Louisville 14-0 and then watched the game slip away. The Seminoles’ FPI standing dropped into the middle of the ACC pack, and their odds of getting to six wins now sit at 67%.
West Virginia’s Week 6 collapse was just as damaging. The Mountaineers fell 52-31 to Arizona and tumbled to the bottom of the Big 12 in the FPI rankings. At 3-3, they have only a 14.6% chance of reaching six wins, with only Colorado worse in the conference.
Florida, meanwhile, took another hit after its second straight loss. The Gators’ CFP chances fell all the way to 2.6%, and even their odds of winning six games dipped to 84.5%. Their slide into the middle of the SEC pack stands out as one of the league’s bigger developments from the week.
In Other News...
Arizona Coach Just Framed WVUs Defensive Collapse Perfectly
Arizona left Morgantown with a 52-31 win over West Virginia, but the tone afterward from Brent Brennan was less about celebration and more about respect for what his team had to navigate. The Arizona coach credited the Mountaineers for their effort and singled out their quarterback while also pointing to the defensive moments that swung the game, including five fourth-down stops and two turnovers that helped the Wildcats keep control.
Brennan also pointed to Isaiah Mizell as one of the players who helped make the difference, while explaining how Arizona approached West Virginias defense and pressure throughout the night. For the Mountaineers, it was the kind of loss that leaves plenty to sort through, because the final score reflected not just Arizonas execution but the specific ways the Wildcats were able to answer the challenges West Virginia presented. [Read more 🡒]
WVU Let A Winnable Game Slip Away Before Fighting Back
West Virginia had chances to settle into the game early against Arizona, and for stretches it looked like the Mountaineers were in position to make it a clean afternoon. The opening quarters were shaped by a steady back-and-forth of first downs, touchdowns, penalties and turnovers, with both offenses finding some rhythm while the defense tried to keep the game from tilting too far in either direction.
What made the matchup feel so tense was how quickly the momentum kept shifting, especially as the win-probability numbers moved with each key play. WVU allowed a winnable game to drift away at points, but the response never disappeared completely, and the second-quarter sequence showed enough fight to keep the result from feeling settled too soon. [Read more 🡒]
Kansas States Big 12 Path Looks Tougher After A Brutal Week
Week 6 in the Big 12 brought a little clarity and a lot of trouble for teams trying to sort out the league race, and West Virginia was right in the middle of the mess. BYU kept rolling with a win over Iowa State, Arizona put up 52 points against the Mountaineers, and Houston turned in a decisive victory over Kansas State, a result that stood out even in a week full of lopsided scores. Around the conference, standout showings from Bear Bachmeier, Noah Fifita and Connor Weigman helped shape a Saturday that kept reshuffling the standings and the conversation.
For West Virginia, the Arizona game was another reminder of how quickly things can get away from a team when the other side is clicking. The Mountaineers had to absorb one of the weeks most eye-catching offensive outputs while the rest of the league continued to pile up results that could matter later in the season. In a conference where every loss seems to carry extra weight, the questions now are less about what went wrong in one afternoon and more about how WVU responds to a stretch that is already starting to separate contenders from the rest. [Read more 🡒]