ESPN’s latest Football Power Index doesn’t exactly hand West Virginia a dream forecast for 2026, but it does give the Mountaineers a clear picture of where the model sees the season heading.
The projection lands WVU at 5.4-6.6 overall, with a 46.5-percent shot at reaching six wins. ESPN’s model also gives the Mountaineers a 0.7-percent chance to win the Big 12, a 1.4-percent chance to make the College Football Playoff, and a 0.0-percent chance to reach the National Championship Game. WVU checks in at No. 66 in the FPI.
Per ESPN, "The Football Power Index (FPI) is a measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of a team's performance going forward for the rest of the season. FPI represents how many points above or below average a team is.
Projected results are based on 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season using FPI, results to date, and the remaining schedule. Ratings and projections update daily."
The easiest win on the board, at least according to the numbers, comes right out of the gate on September 5 against Coastal Carolina. WVU is given an 85.8-percent chance to win that one, while the Chanticleers sit at No. 117 in the FPI.
The two programs have met only once before, in 2010, when West Virginia rolled to a 31-0 win behind Geno Smith, Noel Devine and Tavon Austin. Smith threw two touchdowns, Devine ran for 111 yards and a score, and Austin finished with a team-high 90 receiving yards.
The toughest road test in the group is the November 7 trip to Texas Tech, where the Mountaineers are assigned just a 6.3-percent chance to win. The Red Raiders are No. 10 in the FPI, and the series has tilted their way lately.
West Virginia and Texas Tech have met 15 times, with Tech holding an 8-7 edge. WVU won six of the first eight meetings, but has taken only one of the last seven.
The last two matchups have been especially rough, with Texas Tech outscoring the Mountaineers 101-15.
A few other games sit in the middle of the model’s range. West Virginia gets a 27.2-percent chance to beat Virginia on September 19 in Charlotte, with the Cavaliers ranked No.
- The teams haven’t met since a bowl game in 2002, a 48-22 Virginia win, and before that their last game was in 1985.
Virginia leads the series 12-10-1, has won the last three, and WVU had won the six before that.
The October 17 matchup with Cincinnati comes in at 39.9 percent for the Mountaineers. The Bearcats are No. 46 in the FPI, and West Virginia has dominated the series overall, going 18-3-1 in 22 meetings. WVU has won four straight, including the 2024 meeting, when two defensive touchdowns helped deliver a 31-24 win.
On October 24, WVU goes to TCU with a 24.4-percent chance to win. The Horned Frogs are ranked No.
- In the early Big 12 years, TCU had Dana Holgorsen’s number, winning four of the first six meetings, including a pair of ranked showdowns.
West Virginia then answered by winning five of six before last year’s 23-17 loss in Morgantown.
The closest call on the slate, at least in ESPN’s view, is November 14 against Kansas. WVU gets a 50.4-percent chance in that one, with the Jayhawks sitting at No.
- West Virginia owns an 11-3 edge in the all-time series, winning 10 of the first 11 games.
Kansas, though, has taken two of the last three, including a 41-10 win last season.
In Other News...
Two WVU Starters Suddenly Face A 2026 Role Shakeup
West Virginias offensive depth chart is already drawing a little more attention than usual, and for good reason. Livingston, who handled the center spot last season, is part of a broader conversation about how the line could look moving forward, while the quarterback room has its own long-view storyline with Fox positioned as a developmental piece rather than an immediate answer.
Foxs outlook is tied closely to the present setup, since the job belongs to Mike Hawkins and the path beyond this fall is what makes the situation interesting. For Livingston, the uncertainty is more immediate and more practical, with the staff weighing how best to fit experienced pieces into the interior and keep the offense steady as new options come into view. [Read more 🡒]
WVU Recruiting Board Faces New Pressure After Peach Jam Weekend
The Peach Jam finals wrapped up in North Augusta, and for West Virginias 2027 recruiting board, the weekend offered a fresh look at three priority names against elite Nike EYBL competition. Paul Osaruyi, Javion Tyndale and Justin Frison all took the floor in group play, giving the Mountaineers another chance to evaluate how each prospect handled the pace, physicality and shot-making demands that come with one of the summers biggest stages.
The results were mixed across the board, which is part of what makes this stretch so important for a staff trying to separate long-term upside from immediate fit. Osaruyis AZ Unity group never found a win, Tyndales team managed only one, and Frisons squad finished above .500 but still fell short of the playoffs, leaving West Virginia with plenty of film to sort through and a few questions that will linger well beyond Peach Jam weekend. [Read more 🡒]
West Virginia Camp Is About To Answer Its Biggest Roster Question
With fall camp approaching, the biggest question around West Virginia is less about who is on the roster than which of the new faces will actually settle into the right spots. The Mountaineers are rebuilding for 2026 with a largely new group, and the early focus is on the kind of battles that can shape an entire season: quarterback, the interior defensive line and a cornerback room that mixes returners with transfers. The staff has already shown it wants more depth and size in key areas, which makes these next few weeks especially important.
Michael Hawkins and Scotty Fox headline the quarterback race, while the line and secondary are crowded enough that every rep should matter. In the middle of the defense, several players are pushing for playing time, and at cornerback the mix of familiar names and newcomers gives the coaches plenty to sort through. By the time camp settles in, West Virginia should have a much clearer picture of where its roster stands, even if one of the most important decisions still hangs in the balance. [Read more 🡒]