ESPN’s latest Football Power Index doesn’t exactly hand West Virginia a clean runway in 2026, but it does suggest a season that sits squarely in the middle - not a collapse, not a breakthrough, just a team fighting to stay afloat in a demanding schedule.
The model now projects the Mountaineers at 5.5-6.5, a slight bump from 5.2-6.8. WVU is sitting at No. 61 in the FPI, unchanged from the last update, and the numbers around the program remain fairly modest across the board.
ESPN gives West Virginia a 47.0-percent chance of reaching six wins, up from 43.3, while the chances of winning the Big 12 Conference hold at 0.5 percent. The College Football Playoff odds are down to 0.8 percent from 1.0, and the National Championship Game chance remains at 0.0 percent.
ESPN describes the Football Power Index as “a measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of a team's performance going forward for the rest of the season. FPI represents how many points above or below average a team is.
Projected results are based on 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season using FPI, results to date, and the remaining schedule. Ratings and projections update daily.”
The schedule projections show a mixed path, with one game standing out as the clearest swing point. On September 19 in Charlotte against Virginia, West Virginia is given just a 15.9-percent shot to win, down from 17.5.
The Cavaliers check in at No. 25 in the FPI, and the matchup comes with a long gap in the series. The teams have not played since a bowl game in 2002, when Virginia won 48-22, and before that their last meeting was in 1985.
Virginia leads the all-time series 12-10-1 and has won the last three, after WVU took the six before that.
A few weeks later, the Mountaineers get Cincinnati at home on October 17, and the model sees a much more manageable spot. West Virginia has a 30.6-percent chance to win, down from 39.9, while Cincinnati is up to No. 34 in the FPI from No.
- The Mountaineers have controlled this matchup, owning an 18-3-1 record in 22 games.
They’ve won four straight, including the last two as Big East opponents and the first two after Cincinnati entered the Big 12. In the 2024 meeting, WVU used two defensive touchdowns to pull out a 31-24 win.
The following week brings a trip to TCU on October 24, where West Virginia’s chances sit at 26.6 percent, down from 28.0. The Horned Frogs are No. 41 in the FPI, up from No.
- This series has swung back and forth over the years.
In the early Big 12 days, TCU won four of the first six, including a pair of ranked matchups. West Virginia then took five of six before last season’s 23-17 loss in Morgantown.
The toughest road spot in this stretch may come on November 7 at Texas Tech. ESPN gives the Mountaineers a 10.9-percent chance there, though that is actually up from 6.3.
Texas Tech is No. 16 in the FPI, down from No. 10.
The Red Raiders lead the series 8-7, but West Virginia won six of the first eight meetings. Since then, though, the Mountaineers have only one win in the last seven.
The last two have been lopsided, with Texas Tech outscoring WVU 101-15.
West Virginia’s best projection on the slate comes at home against Kansas on November 14. The Mountaineers are given a 59.0-percent chance to win, up from 46.6, while Kansas sits at No. 62, down from No.
- WVU leads the series 11-3 in 14 meetings, with the early years heavily tilted its way - West Virginia won 10 of the first 11.
Kansas has taken two of the last three, including a 41-10 win last season.
The final game listed in the FPI projections is a November 27 trip to Utah, where the Mountaineers are given a 10.2-percent chance, down from 15.0. The Utes are ranked No. 19, up from No.
- West Virginia has never beaten Utah, dropping two bowl games and its lone Big 12 meeting.
The Mountaineers lost in the Liberty Bowl in 1964, then again in 2017, when half the team sat out. The teams met in the regular season for the first time last year, and Utah rolled to a 48-14 win.
In Other News...
West Virginia Hit With Shocking Staff Crisis Involving Familiar Name
West Virginias football staff is dealing with an unexpected off-field disruption involving a familiar name in Morgantown. Assistant running backs coach Noel Devine was arrested and booked on a felony strangulation charge in Monongalia County, a development that quickly shifted attention away from the field and back to a serious legal matter.
Devine has pleaded not guilty and is scheduled for a preliminary hearing on September 23. Rich Rodriguez has placed him on indefinite leave while the program waits for more information, leaving one of the staffs recognizable figures in limbo as the Mountaineers move forward without clarity on when, or if, he will return. [Read more 🡒]
WVUs 2-0 Start Feels Real In One Area And Risky In Another
West Virginias 2-0 start has the look of something sturdier than a September fluke, especially on offense. The Mountaineers are scoring 41.5 points per game, a sharp jump from recent seasons, and quarterback Michael Hawkins Jr. has given the attack a steady, dual-threat edge with both his arm and his legs. Even the special teams piece has held up cleanly, with Jack Cassidy handling his work without a miss so far.
The part that still feels a little dangerous is what happens when the defense has to get off the field. West Virginia has kept its turnover habit alive from last season, which has helped paper over some issues, but third downs have been a problem and that can wear on a team over time. For a program trying to prove this fast start is real, the offense and the takeaways are doing their job, while the defense still has some answering to do. [Read more 🡒]
West Virginia's Blowout Still Left Two Roster Concerns Hanging
West Virginias lopsided win over UT Martin had all the markings of a comfortable September afternoon, with 115 players in uniform and 95 seeing action as the staff spread snaps around in a 52-7 rout. The Mountaineers are 2-0 now and remain unbeaten against FCS opponents, but the bigger value from a game like this often comes in the depth chart, where young players and reserves get a longer look while the starters avoid unnecessary wear.
Even so, the depth picture is not completely clean. Defensive end Darius Wiley is done for the season with a leg injury, and freshman running back Chris Talley sat out for a second straight week because of a hamstring issue. Those absences do not change the result of Saturdays blowout, but they do leave West Virginia with a couple of roster questions to sort through as the schedule stiffens and the rotation tightens. [Read more 🡒]